So Fired Up! (The Re-Return Of The Buffalo66 Challenge)

Prepare yourself for a long post. You have been forewarned.

I'm feeling better, although still with some lingering effects of my cold. I've also managed to turn an overall profit in March, although there's still another week of NASCAR to deal with.

What has me writing this morning is my experience last night in Fan Duel chat. There have been several "experts" spamming their sites over there. When I finally mentioned I run Daily Fantasy Projections, it got very chippy.

Without rehashing the whole chat, my nemesis-slash-frenemy Kaiseroll13 claims my entire site is based upon one single source of data. While it is true that the "source that shall not be named" is involved in my projections, it is NOT the only source of data used in my analysis.

His ultimate claim is that I'm "ripping people off" by excessively charging for something that he feels others can get somewhere else for less. This gets an LOL, mostly because if it were true, we're talking dollar menu riches, even over the long run.

And this does not take into account the strategy content I provide for my subscribers, which includes private 1-on-1 support.

We all project performance in our own ways and while we may use similar reference materials, it doesn't mean we will get the same results. However, in fantasy hoops with it's simplistic scoring, I can see where Kaiser draws his conclusion.

I'm proud of Daily Fantasy Projections and I stand behind my work. I use these projections EVERY DAY and have long term winning results to show for it, across ALL sports I project. (There are even additional sports I project that I don't sell or share with anyone.)

Kaiser's other beef is that I don't play anything over $5. This is also not true. I have played hoops regularly up to $25 (my worst sport) and have played hockey up to $107 this season. While I am a big believer in spreading risk I try to play anyone that will give me regular action or is a +EV opponent.

There are also a lot of peeps trying to avoid me too.

So once again, we come to this:

To prove that my projections are worthy and I'm not afraid to play bigger stakes, I'm offering up an open challenge I call the "Buffalo66 Challenge".

I'm looking for someone to challenge me to 50 heads-up fantasy contests consisting of:

(10) baseball contests
(10) football contests
(10) basketball contests
(10) hockey contests
(10) NASCAR contests

I'll play any stakes up to $213 PER CONTEST. Buy-in must be the same for all 50 contests.

The challenge will run for 25 dates, with 2 contests categories on each date. I want to stress the importance of having to project two different sports on the same day.

I will play either cap or autodraft contests, but will not play a "no cap" contest. I will hold a draft with my opponent where we will alternate picking dates/categories/sites to hold the contests.

Almost all of the details are negotiable, except I must insist that there are an equal number of contests among all five sports.

I have offered this challenge up publicly TWICE before and have received no takers.

I offered up a multi-sport challenge to Kaiseroll13 last night and he refused. To paraphrase our chat:

His view: He will crush me in baseball, hoops, football. I would win in hockey and NASCAR.

My view of his view: Disregarding variance, he should be favored 30-20, according to his analysis. This is an instacall, easy money for the favorite.

My view: I would win in hockey and NASCAR. He would win in hoops. Football we are even. I think he is slightly better in baseball, but since it is the highest variance game, it could go either way. I'm either a slight favorite or it's an even race.

Since Kaiser is not interested, I'd love to find an opponent willing to take me on. I don't know of ANY other players that play real money every day above $5 in all five sports - not even the "fantasy experts". (If you do, please let me know so I can give you props.)

If anyone is interested in the challenge, please comment or contact me through either site. We can work out the details anytime, anywhere.

Until then I'll just keep plugging away at my small, consistent gains I've made every year since I started this mess.

Carry on.

Illness

I've been pretty much out of commission this past weekend with a cold/sinus/respiratory infection. I've had barely enough energy to keep up with everything. Each day I feel different, but not better.

NASCAR once again kicked my ass, cashing in ZERO contests when the Mark Martin crash pretty much wiped out my whole team. Five races into the season and still no winning weekends.

If you removed the NASCAR contests, I am crushing fantasy this year (so far).

However, adding in NASCAR, it will be a struggle to turn a profit this month.

I'm still pining for the beginning of baseball, which would allow me to easily make up for any future losses in other sports.

Rules vs. Strategy

In daily fantasy sports games there are two areas key to winning long term.

The first of these are the rules of the game. While this seems rather obvious, knowing the rules of the game is key to picking a competitive roster. Knowing how many roster spots, cap or no cap, autopick draft order, etc... is very critical information.

Scoring is also part of the rules. How much for a complete game? Does plus/minus matter to my score? What is the difference between 1st and 5th place finishes in a race (assuming equal laps led)?

You need to know how on the field performance reflects your scoring total. IMO, studying the scoring table can be even more valuable than studying player rankings online.

While knowledge of rules helps you build a consistently competitive roster, it is strategy that helps you defeat opponents (especially good opponents) over the long run.

There is no "manual" for daily fantasy strategy and I'll be damned if I'm going to give away all of mine. But here are some scenarios think about:

-When to hedge and not to hedge.
-Why would you draft your 12th choice 3rd overall in an autopick contest.
-When it is better to sign up 1st or 2nd for a HU contest.
-When contests with higher rake have way more +EV than the contests with the smallest rake.
-When to take a risk on a "game time decision".

I could probably sit here and come up with another dozen scenarios, but I have stuff to do.

I just think a lot of my opponents don't pay enough attention to either rules or strategy. I can tell you this - the ones that don't pay attention to both don't last very long.

Mad, Glad Or Sad?

March has been a tough month so far. But there is still time to turn it around.

One of my fantasy friends tipped me off to this article about daily fantasy games.

And I'm not sure how I feel about it.

I'm always glad when the MSM gives attention to legal daily fantasy games. This means more action for yours truly.

I'm a little mad I wasn't approached for this article! Who does the research over there? The experts they interviewed are good players, but have nowhere near the volume I do - both in contests played and money invested/won. I still say across all sports, no one is better than ol' buffalo66.

And I'm sad that my daily fantasy projections were not mentioned in the article. What a big traffic boost that would be for my little corner of the interwebs.

Hopefully, daily fantasy games will continue to get this kind of attention and maybe someday I'll be invited to the PR party.

The Sunny Side Of The Street

It's a beautiful day in Buffalo, we are all hoping that the doldrums of winter are behind us.

I'm trying to use the power of the sun to keep a positive "sunny" tone regarding my fantasy play.

It's been a losing month so far and once again NASCAR is the leading culprit. Edwards crashing Keselowski cost me about 200 points in almost every contest, dashing any hopes of cashing. Four races into the season and I have yet to post a winning week.

Basketball and hockey continue their seasons, and I'm pretty much treading water in those sports. Actually, that's the plan - try to stay even until you have a breakout night.

It would be nice to make up some ground before baseball starts. I have had winning months 6 of 7 tries since last August. I would rather think positive than just say, "I'm due".

Still Expecting Big Things

I'm back from my long excursion. 8+ days, 9 states and 2200+ miles later, I'm happy to be sitting back in front of my desktop.

February was kind of a vacuum for me. There was the NHL Olympic break which really killed the momentum of my fantasy play.

I had a stellar month on Fan Duel, putting up a neat +44.00% ROI. However, on Fantasy Sports Live I was pounded, displaying a horrible -43.10% ROI. This was mostly due to cashing in only 7 of 31 NASCAR contests.

Over all sites I cashed in 50 of 90 contests to post a solid +10.16% ROI.

March should be a huge month, with hoops, hockey and NASCAR going full throttle, plus baseball will start before the month is up. I'll finally be getting the high volume play I've been anticipating since the new year.

As for my trip, I'll say it was necessary - but not as fruitful as I'd hoped. It did help me clear my head about some things. I hope I'm ready to make the big decisions I need to move my life forward.