Sunday, February 21, 2010

We're On The Road, Coach!



I'm loading up the car right after finishing this post. I have a lot of errands to take care of before my trip.

I continue to crush Fan Duel in February, even though hockey is on hiatus. FSL is a different story, I'll need a lot of run good to make some money at NASCAR today.

I don't know how much time I'll have to play contests, but I still take time every day to update my Daily Fantasy Projections.

When March rolls around I expect to have an busy fantasy month, leading up to the start of baseball.

Monday, February 15, 2010

A Whole Lotta Nothing Should Lead To Something

It's a rare day off in the fantasy world. No hoops until tomorrow, no hockey until March 1st.

I'm back online and played my first contests since the move. I've swept everything on Fan Duel this month so far, which feels pretty good since I ended up a loser there in January.

I had a losing weekend on Fantasy Sports Live, mostly due to my NASCAR contest fail. Same thing happened last year - restrictor plate bingo - those races are definitely the biggest luckbox events.

In FSL hockey I'm about even this month. I may dabble in hoops during the olympic break.

I'll be on the move a lot during the remainder of February, combining business and pleasure with a trip down south that should last a week or so. When I get back in March, my future plans should be more defined.

Hopefully I can share more then.

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Waiting On The Cable Guy

I'm chillin' in Buffalo without any broadband service. So I've been internet cafe dude for the last 10 days.

I'm hoping to play a bunch of contests soon, but technology has the best of me right now.

Stay tuned.

Friday, February 05, 2010

Proof That Snapdraft Can Be Beaten

Tax season is upon us and that can only mean one thing - the dreaded 1099-misc.

Here's what Snapdraft sent me this year:


And I never played one contest over $5 all year.

Unfortunately, the 1099 form doesn't include the deduction for contest fees. You have to itemize the deductions, unless you're a broke ass (like me) and take the standard.

I declare all of my income from my fantasy winnings and have every year since I started playing. After all, it is a game of skill, right?

Good luck with your tax returns this year.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Live Blogging The WBCOOP Main Event

4:55pm - Oh, the blogger tournament thingy is going on? I'm so glad I'm not playing that fucking thing. My burritos are almost done!

5:00pm - Burritos are done!

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

One Down, One To Go

I just secured a new apartment in Buffalo. So, I'm back. Sort of.

I'll probably be splitting time between B-Lo and Prison City until my father's estate is settled. We're selling a house in Auburn and that will take a few months.

Now that I have a new place to live, I need a new career/lifestyle to go with it.

In the fantasy arena, I've been trying to claw my way into the black for January. Interestingly enough, my three biggest winning days have all been Saturdays. I wonder if that is statistically significant, since Saturday is always the busiest hockey day of the week.

Anyway, I still have the rest of the week to keep my winning month streak alive.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Changes Are Coming

I have been pulled away from the blogoshpere with some IRL duties.

I also have some new, stronger glasses so I can see stuff. I think I just went from four eyes to eight eyes.

The end of fantasy football is upon us. Also, there will be a three week break from NHL while the olympics are going on.

So it's a good time for me to do some traveling. I'm looking for new opportunities and new places to live.

I think both of those issues will be resolved soon.

Stay tuned.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

2010: Dipping My Toe In The Deep End

I've been doing a lot of soul searching this month.

I have started playing daily fantasy sports contests again. I finished up 2009 strong, but have been break even so far this month. I haven't had a losing month since August, so maybe some run bad is coming my way.

I'm committing a decent size bankroll to fantasy this year, but I haven't put much of it online. I'm starting small and I plan on growing it, plus supplementing it throughout the year.

In other words, I won't need to withdraw (like I have in the past). We'll see if I can approach fantasy "baller" status this year. (He says with tongue fully in cheek.)

Pokerstars bonus passed and I didn't act upon it. I just felt like I would be chained to my PC if I started playing again. I'm not sure I'm in the right frame of mind to grind cards 100+ hours/month.

I've been pondering some big life decisions lately and am considering a variety of career paths. I have some interesting ideas but I'm still in "wait and see" mode.

I have decided I will go to Vegas this year. Probably for WBPT but maybe I'll visit during the WSOP and watch some of the goings on.

Friday, January 08, 2010

What You Really Need To Win Daily Fantasy Games

Listen up, fellow gamers. Here is some general strategy advice straight out of my unpublished manuscript. So take notes or bookmark this page.

In order to beat the daily fantasy games long term, you'll need three tools in your arsenal. Each of these is equally important and ignoring any one of them will put you at risk of a big losing streak.

1) You will need a method to project player performance. Now, you don't have to run computer simulated models like I do at daily fantasy projections, but you do need SOME method to guesstimate performance.

You can use player rankings from your favorite sports web site or choose some stats to follow and see which players perform better.

Whether simple or complex, your methodology should give you a short list of players to fill out your roster.

2) You will need to practice strict bankroll management. I have spoken many times about the importance of not playing above your bankroll.

If you just "let it ride", one fluke injury or ejection can cost you hundreds (if not thousands) of dollars.

My suggestion is to pick a buy-in level - "X number of buy-ins" - that can sustain you through a bad month. So if you played only one game each night, 30 buy-ins should do the trick.

Eventually, you will find your own comfort level when determining how much bankroll you need for your play.

Practicing good bankroll management will keep you from going broke, even if a losing streak forces you to play smaller stakes.

3) You will need good information. This is something I haven't talked about too much. Fantasy sports, like any other market, is affected by up to the minute information. Player values rise and fall for many reasons, including off the field activities.

If your top rated pick is a game-time decision, gets a DUI, has to attend a funeral or is just plain ol' benched - this is information you need to know BEFORE the contests start.

Find places to get this information. In our internet age it's getting easier and easier.

One advantage to finding good info is that you'll soon find out which of your opponents do not have it. These are the players you want to take on repeatedly.

These three steps seem rather obvious, but you would be surprised how few fantasy players really take them seriously. I think there's a lot of money to be made out there for the gamers that practice due diligence on their picks.

Monday, January 04, 2010

A New Year, A New Life?

So I'm back from my brief visit to the Nickel City. Things seem pretty much the same there, which I admit is comforting to me.

However, I thought that visit would give me some clarity about my future plans.

I'm not sure what I should be doing next. Not next week, next month or next year.

Now, I know I'm moving. That's a given. We have to finalize my father's estate, which could take 6-9 months.

I don't want to live in Prison City anymore. But I'm undecided whether to buy or rent, which affects where I would live.

I do want to return to gaming soon. Although I'm not sure how deep I want to get in right now.

This is pretty ironic, because I suddenly find myself bankrolled for the deepest fantasy games online. I could take on anyone at any site, even Kaiser, withstanding variance above $266 games.

Poker is also sending me a message, with Stars offering a new VIP plan plus a reload bonus. But as I have hashed out here many times before, grinding cards takes a time commitment that fantasy games do not.

I think I would have to give poker a one year obligation and I'm not feelin' it right now.

The one sure thing I'm still devoted to is daily fantasy projections . I promised to give it a year, until at least next September. While I have kept the site up to date, I have not promoted or marketed much since Jack passed.

With all of the options I have before me, why do I feel so "blech"? I should be excited. Maybe it's the crappy weather.

I'll let you know what happens.

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Happy New Yizzle

Heading off to Buffalo for a few nights of R&R (Rinks & Relaxation. Going to see the Sabres/Thrashers on the 1st.)

Keep warm, stay off the roads and drink up. Be back soon.

Monday, December 28, 2009

Do I Fail At Snapdraft Fail?

(In other words: Why you should be playing at Snapdraft!)

I've read several blog posts over the last few months about Snapdraft. Essentially, all of those posts equate Snapdraft as a horrible place to spend your fantasy dollar.

Snapdraft is a rake monster! Snapdraft cannot be beaten long term! Rubbish, I say.

First off, I've already proven Snapdraft can be beaten for a +20% ROI over a multi-year sample. (There was some serious run bad in that sample too.)

I readily admit that Snapdraft charges higher rake than the other major sites. But they make up for it - BIG TIME - in bonuses.

Each week, for the last seven weeks consecutively - I have received a 100% reload bonus offer from Snapdraft in my email. While most of these are in the $10-25 range, one was for $50 and another was $100.

(This does not even include two "no deposit" bonus offers for $10 and $25. Free moniez!)

All of that extra coinage in your bankroll will easily offset any extra rake. In fact, I would argue that it might make Snapdraft rake LOWER than at least one other major site.

I get absolutely nothing for saying this. There are no marketing relationships between me and Snapdraft. I'm just telling you about my personal experience.

In fact, there are still things I dislike about Snapdraft. They never reprice the players. They use almost no negative scoring. Their NASCAR game sucks inflamed elk testicles.

However, with the soft opponents and the constant reloads, I'll be back there again and again.

P.S. - I'm still on break from fantasy gaming while I handle my father's estate. I'll be back soon with a in-depth update.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Goodbye Jack (a long remembrance)

Prologue

This could also be titled: “What the hell I’ve been doing with my life the last four years.”

I started this blog in 2003 as a thirty-something, poker playing party animal. I regaled in tales of bad beats, cheap drinks and (occasionally) bathroom sex. I was enjoying the nightlife in Buffalo and it treated me pretty good.

I was also catching on to the growing poker blogging community. I missed a couple of blogger gatherings, mostly because they were far away. To this day I’ve still never been to Vegas.

All things must change, I guess. During the summer of 2005 my ebay business – my “9 to 5 job” - had pretty much collapsed. The combination of rising costs, merchandise flooding the market (and the lingering NHL lockout) basically destroyed my revenue stream. And poker wasn’t paying the bills either.

I didn’t really have any other choice to pack up and leave my now too expensive apartment. So in 2005, I moved back to our family’s house in Auburn, NY (aka “Prison City”).

And that is where this story begins.

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I meant that move to be only temporary – a jumping off point to embark on a new adventure. Obviously, that’s not what happened.

I spent the first few months worried I had turned into the ultimate blogger or 2+2 cliché – living in my parent’s basement, spewing pseudo “baller” posts online, pretending to be someone that mattered. (FWIW, I’ve never been baller, real or imagined.)

Besides, I was also knocking on 40 years old and uncertain what the hell I was supposed to be doing anyway.

What I soon realized was that my father, Jack – my new roommate – had been living all alone for a few years, and becoming quite overwhelmed with the house upkeep and the isolation he had created.

I quickly surmised that my “temporary” move had taken on a whole new meaning. I had two choices: I could pay someone to look after my father, or stay with him and help take care of his affairs.

Since I couldn’t afford to hire any help, I decided to stay for the long haul.

There’s a little back-story here. Jack and I had a tenuous relationship at best. We didn’t speak to each other for several years. It was very “prodigal son-ish” – I needed to prove I didn’t need him for anything, and he needed to prove he had the final say on most of my life choices.

We had made our peace well before 2005, but you can imagine how difficult it was for Jack to ask me for anything. If he needed support from his kids, why did it have to be from me?

My father was retired and fairly well off. Approaching 80, he was mentally sharp and very capable of looking after his finances. But he had reached an age where we all get worn out easily and sometimes forgetful.

So for about a year there was a nice balance at home. I helped with the household affairs, and I had enough space I could get back into poker and whatever else I wanted to try. (Daily fantasy sports soon came along – another story for another time.)

Early in 2006 Jack had his regularly scheduled doctor visits and was sent to a lung specialist. He was soon diagnosed with pulmonary fibrosis – irreversible scarring of the lungs. It was idiopathic, meaning that the cause of the illness is unknown. He never smoked one day in his life.

Since this is a progressive disease, I knew right away that he had been dealt a shitty hand - a long, slow death sentence. And he took the news like a fucking man. Jack never told a bad beat story, regardless of the circumstances.

He was immediately put on oxygen, which he needed 24/7 for the rest of his life. The next 2+ years were pleasantly uneventful, considering the amount of doctor visits he required. I think he had about seven specialists he was seeing.

This year was just a long, downward slide. My father continued to lose weight down to about 100 pounds. (This is a side effect of the lung disease). As he needed higher levels of oxygen to maintain his blood levels, even simple tasks like walking to the bathroom were exhausting struggles.

This spring my sister also moved back to the house from California. She was a huge help with the medical scheduling, as Jack needed more and more treatments at home.

This fall we found out my father had cancer. But in actuality, this turned out to be the least of our worries.

Jack was a great patient, always wanting to fight. He was just too weak and frail for any chemo or radiation.

We had a few scares in November when his breathing became irregular or shallow. We called 911 more than once over the last month.

Jack ended up in the hospital and we were discussing hospice options for him. He actually seemed to improve a bit. He was completely lucid and cracking some jokes.

Then on early Saturday morning, around the time hardcore bloggers were holding court at the hooker bar, my father passed away.

I don’t believe in fate or happen-stance or whatever, but there were forces pushing me to where I am right now.

While I’m still mourning, I’m a little scared to begin that new adventure I meant to start in 2005.

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Epilogue

I buried my father yesterday.

He was a depression era child. He taught me the importance of appreciating what you have.

I’m thankful we got to spend his final years together.

It’s just that simple.

PS – Here’s my favorite pic of Jack. He used to race sports cars before he had kids.

Friday, December 11, 2009

Hiatus

Even though I am a solid winner all around this month, I have to take a break for a few weeks.

Things are getting very difficult for me I.R.L. I'm still dealing with some personal matters, which take up most of my time.

I'll still offer daily fantasy projections for my subscribers, but you probably won't hear much from me until after the holidays.

I did manage to win both football picks last week, giving me a squeaker of a winning year.

Happy Holidizzle to all my faithful readership.

Friday, December 04, 2009

Still Here, Still Busy

Not much time to write.

I had a winning November overall, Way up on FSL but a loser on Fan Duel.

I'm super hot playing hockey this week, closing in on 40 consecutive FSL cashes.

My "no research" football picks: I'm picking the Cincinnati Bearcats and Indianapolis Colts to cover this week. Trying to salvage a winning year. [2009 YTD 19-20.]

Back soon, I promise.

Saturday, November 28, 2009

Sometimes, Stuff Gets Real

I'm dealing with some personal family matters that are occupying the majority of my time. I'll probably write about it at some point.

But for now, you won't find too much going on here.

Football Picks: CFL Grey Cup, Saskatchewan vs. Montreal (-9.5). The Als are the best team by far. I hope they cover. NCAA, Miami @ South Fla. (+6.5). Big East continues to be underrated. NFL, Jaguars (+3) @ 49ers. Jacksonville is still sniffing the playoffs. [2009 YTD 19-17.]

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Mired In A Slump

Things have been pretty slow this week. I haven't found as much hockey action as I would care to play.

I've managed to whittle away my early big gains on FSL, although I am still profitable for the month.

Over on Fan Duel, I managed to put together twin 5-day losing streaks, sandwiched by a minute profit. I'm virtually assured of a losing month, barring going perfect the rest of the way.

I can't complain, it's been 3+ months since I've had significant losses on any site. You can't run good forever.

Even though I've been losing, no one has taken me up on my HU challenge. I'm not surprised.

I took last week off from football picks, I hope that doesn't cost me a winning year.

Picks: CFL, Calgary @ Saskatchewan (-3). I expect the 'Riders to make the Grey Cup game. NCAA, LSU (+4.5) @ Ole Miss. Bounce back game for the Tigers. NFL, Colts (-1) @ Ravens. Lines are huge this week, taking a coin toss. [2009 YTD 16-17.]

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Oh No. Here We Go Again.

I've been playing daily fantasy games for 3+ years, and every time a new site starts to get popular, the same "competition & fairness" issues pop up.

Over on the Fan Duel forums, the bitching and moaning has become pretty loud.

First off, we have this gem about tie contests:

"Bad enough we gotta win 55.6% of the time just to break even, now we take it in the shorts when we tie huh? Okey-doke. See y'all 'round elsewhere."


You paid an specific entry fee for a contest with a specific prize. When you tie, you split the prize money. Put away your skirt and get over it.

Let me give you a poker example. We are playing a cash game (online or in a casino). We play a hand all in pre-flop, AA vs. AA. The board comes KK456 rainbow. We split the pot, and the pot is still raked.

My advice is, don't play if you don't know what you're getting into - or play the free "just for fun" games.

The second Fan Duel issue revolves around the matchup process. Apparently, some contest hogs are appearing, resulting in the same matchups over and over. The hogs sign up for dozens of $5 contests, leaving the casual users frustrated.

I do understand that it can get stale playing the same opponent over and over. But guess what? IT'S HEADS-UP PLAY! You only get one opponent. Winning players will play more. They will leverage their money as much as possible.

I look at this situation as a way to learn how to beat the "hog" long term. You know you will get action from him every night. You can try different strategies and see what works best.

Do you think the best HU poker players in the world use the exact same strategy for every opponent? Hell no, they adjust their play based upon the opponent and circumstances.

I also believe a lot of these casual users are affected by short term results. They lose a few in a row, get matched up with the same opponent again and the negative vibes start flowing. Don't be so results oriented, there will be good runs and bad.

As for the matchup process, there are a few things I think Fan Duel can do to improve the situation:

solution A - Limit the number of entries at the $5 level. Say you can only enter between 5-10 $5 contests, but you can play unlimited $10 and up. If a "hog' wants to put all their money in play, they will have to play higher.

solution B - change the matching algorithm for $5 contests. Let's say the entries break down like this:

Player 1 has 70 entries
Player 2 has 45 entries
Player 3 has 25 entries
All other players have 2 or fewer entries.

Step 1: eliminate (do not match) 25 entries for player 1 so he has the same entries as player 2.

Step 2: match 20 entries between players 1 & 2, until they have the same number of entries left as player 3.

Step 3: match entries between players 1,2,3 until they have the same number of entries as the next player, repeat as necessary, etc.

This will allow the casual user to get a truly random opponent.

Both of these solutions are simple, straightforward and easy for Fan Duel to implement.

In defense of the contest hogs I did read some posts about not getting matched up regularly at higher levels, so obviously they played lower stakes.

In summary, just man up and quit your crying. I've played on virtually every site and none of them are perfect. There are contest hogs on every site. There will be growing pains on every site.

If you have to hand pick your opponent for every contest, you're probably not good enough to beat most of the sites anyway.

Friday, November 13, 2009

Haterade Shower

What an extremely interesting week it's been in fantasy world. Last night I got this thrown at me in an FSL hockey contest:



So... fill in the blank. (He's mad at me and I lost the contest!) Not the first time someone has tried to tilt me in a fantasy contest.

I'm guessing he's upset that I'm a fantasy expert, yet not playing nosebleed stakes. Well, I'll tell you why I'm not playing nosebleed games right now:

1) I can't afford it. I'm not bankrolled enough to play up there.
2) It's a dumb move, UNLESS... and this is important - you know you can get consistent, repeat action at those levels.

Let's say for argument's sake I play him 3 straight nights at $107 HU. And I manage to win all three contests. Does he continue to play me? Does he start to avoid me? Does he refuse to sign up 1st for any contests? We'll never know.

Since there is no guarantee of repeat action, there is no point in risking a large portion of my bankroll on one contest.

I never said to ANYONE I was the BEST fantasy player. However, I am a winning fantasy player. I have won on ALL of the daily sites I've played on - including the (*ahem*) "unbeatable" sites. I have won every year from 2006-2009. I'm one of the only players active in all sports currently being offered on the daily sites.

I cash out my winnings and I spend them. I'm not a wealthy man and I realize that $213 fantasy contests are play money games to some folks. Believe me, I'd like to get to those games, because I think there's a lot of dead money there.

If somebody wants to set up a HU challenge across ALL the sports, I'll take anyone on at whatever stakes I can afford. And I'll gladly post the results right here, win or lose.

I actually started my daily fantasy projections site to try and raise money to reach those expensive games. I figured it would be worth it for my opponents to find out who I was likely to pick each night. Basically, I've been selling some of my edge for a price.

Speaking of daily fantasy projections, I see that FSL has decided to offer free projections for football contests. It's a good marketing tool for them.

But I think that imitation is a sincere form of flattery! (I also think you get what you pay for!)

DFP offers projections for all team sports on all the best sites, every day.

While I do think there are excellent free player ranking out there, our football projections come from full game simlulations that include all stats used in scoring - Yds, TDs, Fumbles, INTs, Sacks, Safeties, 2 pt conversions, FG distance and accuracy.

It's important to have accurate projections, because that's how you know if you're getting good value for the cap space you are using.

My projections are back by 3+ years of WINNING results and are a tremendous value for the price.

One last thing - Any player good enough to beat me consistently wouldn't be crying for a matchup. They would be quietly pleased whenever I show up (at ANY stakes).

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

More Auto Draft Discussion: The Endgame

I'm surprised about how much feedback I got from my previous post. I didn't realize that many of my readers were avid auto draft fans.

Well, I'm going to compare FSL and Fan Duel auto drafts. Even though they shouldn't really be compared - they are very different games.

On Fan Duel the auto draft has a flexible player list. This means you can select a player (say Kobe Bryant), and put him as you 1st choice or 18th choice (or anywhere in between). You can choose the exact order you draft each player, regardless of their position on the field.

On FSL the auto draft has a rigid player list. You make your choices at each position, but the order that the players are drafted is pre-determined.

On Fan Duel the draft order is determined by which user signs up first. Users then alternate picks until the rosters are filled. Since opponents are randomly chosen, you have a chance of picking 1st or 2nd.

On FSL the draft order is determined by total cap points of your picks. The user with the lowest cap total picks 1st. (This method is explained in FAQ of the FSL site, but it would be nice if it was included on the contest page or rules page.)

On Fan Duel, it is a slight advantage to pick 1st, but I feel this advantage is minimized by the flexibility of the draft list.

On FSL, it is a huge advantage to pick 1st (or 2nd, depending on the sport). IMO, it should be your primary objective to get the superior draft position.

The best example I can give comparing the two sites is a basketball contest, on a night when both Kobe and LeBron are playing.

On Fan Duel, if each user drafts those players first, one will get Kobe and one will get LeBron.

On FSL, the user in the 2nd draft position will get BOTH Kobe and LeBron, while player 1 will get neither.

So use your own judgement over which game fits your needs.

I prefer the Fan Duel drafts, but that's just me.

I'm pretty much done talking about this, OK?