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Saturday, December 08, 2012
Three Maxims Of Sports Betting Psychology
I'm back from Las Vegas. I had a much needed vacation, along with a chance to test out my index wagering methodology. I finished 96-76-5 (55.8%)for a profit of 35.3 units. Not outstanding, but I would take that every week.
I also had a lot of time to think on my trip. I've discussed betting with my runners and I've come up with a pretty good mantra to help keep my head right while placing wagers. Just remind yourself of the three phrases before each day of action:
1. Don't be greedy. I saw so many players at the book throw down 4-8 team parlays. I'm not against parlays, but I'm a straight bettor by choice. I wager within my limits and my bets are spread out so that one wager lost will not make or break me. Sometime a boring moneyline bet at -300 is the easiest money of the day.
2. Don't be desperate. If you find yourself in the hole or outside of your comfort zone, take a time out. If you get desperate, you might make poor betting choices (such as taking risks on long shots that are -EV). I heard one bettor in the book say, "I'm short on the rent." From a psychological perspective, you do not bet to make the rent - you pay the rent out of your bankroll (or life roll). In other words, keep your life choices and your betting choices separate.
3. Don't be scared. As in poker, scared money rarely wins over time. You have to have confidence in your wagering plan and stick to it. If your model has Team X as an outright winner, you should bet them even if they are +380 on the board. You can't be afraid to bet big on a game you really like, but you have to balance that with staying within your limits/system.
I just tell myself these three things every day and it helps get me ready for the sports book. I hope it will help you too.
I also had a lot of time to think on my trip. I've discussed betting with my runners and I've come up with a pretty good mantra to help keep my head right while placing wagers. Just remind yourself of the three phrases before each day of action:
1. Don't be greedy. I saw so many players at the book throw down 4-8 team parlays. I'm not against parlays, but I'm a straight bettor by choice. I wager within my limits and my bets are spread out so that one wager lost will not make or break me. Sometime a boring moneyline bet at -300 is the easiest money of the day.
2. Don't be desperate. If you find yourself in the hole or outside of your comfort zone, take a time out. If you get desperate, you might make poor betting choices (such as taking risks on long shots that are -EV). I heard one bettor in the book say, "I'm short on the rent." From a psychological perspective, you do not bet to make the rent - you pay the rent out of your bankroll (or life roll). In other words, keep your life choices and your betting choices separate.
3. Don't be scared. As in poker, scared money rarely wins over time. You have to have confidence in your wagering plan and stick to it. If your model has Team X as an outright winner, you should bet them even if they are +380 on the board. You can't be afraid to bet big on a game you really like, but you have to balance that with staying within your limits/system.
I just tell myself these three things every day and it helps get me ready for the sports book. I hope it will help you too.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012
We Interrupt This Blog For Vegas, So Check Out Some Others
Thanks to "Cyber Monday" I scored a great deal for Las Vegas. I'm leaving tomorrow for a week. Looking forward to testing out my wagering methodology without relying on the betting options in Canada.
Anyway, while I'm away, you can check out a couple of blogs from some DFS ballers:
Condia now has a blog. He is probably the best bankrolled DFS player. I know a lot of people visited this space searching for Condia on the google machine. Now you can hear what he has to say for yourself.
Brettfarve444 also has his own special place on the internet. He is strictly a Draftstreet guy, but he's very entertaining when he posts. And their are surprise appearances by Tuttle if you read the comments.
So hopefully some good content will show up before I'm back in Buffalo. I'll try to keep my Wagerminds picks up while I'm away.
Anyway, while I'm away, you can check out a couple of blogs from some DFS ballers:
Condia now has a blog. He is probably the best bankrolled DFS player. I know a lot of people visited this space searching for Condia on the google machine. Now you can hear what he has to say for yourself.
Brettfarve444 also has his own special place on the internet. He is strictly a Draftstreet guy, but he's very entertaining when he posts. And their are surprise appearances by Tuttle if you read the comments.
So hopefully some good content will show up before I'm back in Buffalo. I'll try to keep my Wagerminds picks up while I'm away.
Friday, November 16, 2012
The Superstar Dilemma
Sorry if it seems like I've been neglecting the blog lately. I've been incredibly busy for an unemployed slob.
I've been meaning to write this post for awhile. As daily fantasy sports continues to grow, the nature of the games offered evolve. As the markets expand, the contest sites respond to the growing player base in different ways.
Having played DFS for 6 years now, I've learned you have to adjust strategies when switching sites (or seasons). Let me try to tie all of these thoughts together:
I haven't played much NFL this year. But the little I have played hasn't been very successful. Why?
I played mostly large field tournaments on Fan Duel. While I put up some very good scores that cashed, I never hit that exceptional score needed to take the tourney down.
Now I won several large fields last season. Was I just unlucky this season? Was I a luckbox last year? Is this just normal variance? IMO, no it's not.
The tournaments are salary cap games. And the salary cap is very different from year to year.
This is the first year Fan Duel starting national media advertising. And the response to that was a huge influx of new players. On the surface this seems great - a whole bunch of dead money driving up the prize pools.
This is where the fly hits the ointment. Now that Fan Duel has all of the new players, it has to keep them interested & involved. To do that, they loosen up the salary cap to allow users to make a team of studs. Unfortunately, this sucks a lot of the skill out of the game.
Ask anyone who played there last season and they will agree it's much easier to fit under the cap this year. Which makes the tourneys much more lottery than ever before, especially when you're playing the largest entry pools.
I realize the DFS sites are a business. The easier they make the games, the more people will play. The more skill involved, the more hardcore ballers will spend. It seems at the moment the casual players are more valuable to the sites.
It's no coincidence that the most high stakes action takes place on Draftstreet. They have the lowest rake at high stakes, the most fluid pricing for salary caps, the option to play draft games and complex scoring tables. All of the big names in DFS right now are well represented there.
As for me, I'm still spending my time on sports betting model & planning a trip to Vegas. I reached the #1 ranking on Wagerminds, let's see if I can stay there.
Have a great start to the holiday season.
I've been meaning to write this post for awhile. As daily fantasy sports continues to grow, the nature of the games offered evolve. As the markets expand, the contest sites respond to the growing player base in different ways.
Having played DFS for 6 years now, I've learned you have to adjust strategies when switching sites (or seasons). Let me try to tie all of these thoughts together:
I haven't played much NFL this year. But the little I have played hasn't been very successful. Why?
I played mostly large field tournaments on Fan Duel. While I put up some very good scores that cashed, I never hit that exceptional score needed to take the tourney down.
Now I won several large fields last season. Was I just unlucky this season? Was I a luckbox last year? Is this just normal variance? IMO, no it's not.
The tournaments are salary cap games. And the salary cap is very different from year to year.
This is the first year Fan Duel starting national media advertising. And the response to that was a huge influx of new players. On the surface this seems great - a whole bunch of dead money driving up the prize pools.
This is where the fly hits the ointment. Now that Fan Duel has all of the new players, it has to keep them interested & involved. To do that, they loosen up the salary cap to allow users to make a team of studs. Unfortunately, this sucks a lot of the skill out of the game.
Ask anyone who played there last season and they will agree it's much easier to fit under the cap this year. Which makes the tourneys much more lottery than ever before, especially when you're playing the largest entry pools.
I realize the DFS sites are a business. The easier they make the games, the more people will play. The more skill involved, the more hardcore ballers will spend. It seems at the moment the casual players are more valuable to the sites.
It's no coincidence that the most high stakes action takes place on Draftstreet. They have the lowest rake at high stakes, the most fluid pricing for salary caps, the option to play draft games and complex scoring tables. All of the big names in DFS right now are well represented there.
As for me, I'm still spending my time on sports betting model & planning a trip to Vegas. I reached the #1 ranking on Wagerminds, let's see if I can stay there.
Have a great start to the holiday season.
Saturday, October 20, 2012
Index Style Sports Betting For Fun & Profit
Lately, I've been spending a fair amount of time with single event sports betting.
I'd been looking for a way to create a record of my play when I stumbled across Wagerminds. While you cannot wager real money, it's a pretty clean set-up.
Right away I noticed you could not practice Kelly criterion wagering, which left me disappointed. I also was frustrated with the lack of CFL betting. (They have WNBA for goodness sake!)
Resigned to a flat betting scheme, I experimented with wagering similar to my last trip to Vegas: Picking my spots, looking for lines wavering from my personal models. And pretty much I sucked for the first month. I couldn't hit a total to save my life.
While I was floundering, I scouted the more successful bettors on the site and asked, "What are they doing differently?" First of all, they were betting the max (5 units) on almost every wager. Also, they wagered more often than me.
It became clear that to climb the rankings at Wagerminds, you needed to handicap a HUGE volume of games.
Now I don't mess with markets I know little about (WNBA) or derivative betting (1st half, etc.) My forecast models are all based on full game simulations. And I believe my data brought me an advantage: The ability to handicap many games quickly.
So a few weeks ago I began the grand experiment. I capped the entire NCAA football card.
Now that does NOT mean I bet every game. Some games I made 3 wagers (spread, ML, total). Some games I might have not wagered at all. But I'm certain I had action on 50+ of the 60 games going.
Much to my surprise I finished up +106.5 units on that week. The next two weeks were also winners (65 & 28 units). And I zoomed up the Wagerminds leaderboard.
I'm learning that volume betting diversifies risk (and tilt factor). No single game is make or break for you. If you have a wide variety of markets to bet on, index style wagering might work for you.
I'll keep you posted on the results.
I'd been looking for a way to create a record of my play when I stumbled across Wagerminds. While you cannot wager real money, it's a pretty clean set-up.
Right away I noticed you could not practice Kelly criterion wagering, which left me disappointed. I also was frustrated with the lack of CFL betting. (They have WNBA for goodness sake!)
Resigned to a flat betting scheme, I experimented with wagering similar to my last trip to Vegas: Picking my spots, looking for lines wavering from my personal models. And pretty much I sucked for the first month. I couldn't hit a total to save my life.
While I was floundering, I scouted the more successful bettors on the site and asked, "What are they doing differently?" First of all, they were betting the max (5 units) on almost every wager. Also, they wagered more often than me.
It became clear that to climb the rankings at Wagerminds, you needed to handicap a HUGE volume of games.
Now I don't mess with markets I know little about (WNBA) or derivative betting (1st half, etc.) My forecast models are all based on full game simulations. And I believe my data brought me an advantage: The ability to handicap many games quickly.
So a few weeks ago I began the grand experiment. I capped the entire NCAA football card.
Now that does NOT mean I bet every game. Some games I made 3 wagers (spread, ML, total). Some games I might have not wagered at all. But I'm certain I had action on 50+ of the 60 games going.
Much to my surprise I finished up +106.5 units on that week. The next two weeks were also winners (65 & 28 units). And I zoomed up the Wagerminds leaderboard.
I'm learning that volume betting diversifies risk (and tilt factor). No single game is make or break for you. If you have a wide variety of markets to bet on, index style wagering might work for you.
I'll keep you posted on the results.
Thursday, September 13, 2012
Value Is Based On Buy-Ins
It's pretty obvious when you are playing fantasy tournaments that you need to figure out where your money is going.
How much rake are you paying? (If there's an overlay, sometimes none.)
When you become experienced enough to actually compete for the top prize in a tourney, you also need to consider the potential reward for what you are spending.
In other words, How much return (ROI) can you get for your entry fee(s)?
The easiest way to measure this is buy-ins.
Here's a quick example. the $3k Fan Duel baseball tourney has a $25 buy-in and a top prize of $750. Therefore the max buy-ins I can win off one entry is $750/$25 = 30 buy-ins.
Now let's move on to NFL which has a much bigger user base. The $1, $2 & $5 tourneys they run (and fill) each week offer a top prize return of 350 BUY-INS.
That's an amazing value. If you're just starting out, playing these cheap tourneys multiple times would probably be the best way to grow your bankroll.
Let's compare this return to the largest multi-entry Fan Duel NFL tourneys:
The $535 pays out $7,500 for 1st, a return of 14.01 buy-ins.
The $100 pays out $5,000 for 1st, a return of 50 buy-ins. (In this tourney you are paying the SAME RAKE as the small tourneys!)
And consider this about the FFFC: If you entered the $270 qualifier that didn't fill, you played with no rake. However, even if you made the final and finished 3rd for $25k... You still made less than 93 buy-ins on your investment.
How much rake are you paying? (If there's an overlay, sometimes none.)
When you become experienced enough to actually compete for the top prize in a tourney, you also need to consider the potential reward for what you are spending.
In other words, How much return (ROI) can you get for your entry fee(s)?
The easiest way to measure this is buy-ins.
Here's a quick example. the $3k Fan Duel baseball tourney has a $25 buy-in and a top prize of $750. Therefore the max buy-ins I can win off one entry is $750/$25 = 30 buy-ins.
Now let's move on to NFL which has a much bigger user base. The $1, $2 & $5 tourneys they run (and fill) each week offer a top prize return of 350 BUY-INS.
That's an amazing value. If you're just starting out, playing these cheap tourneys multiple times would probably be the best way to grow your bankroll.
Let's compare this return to the largest multi-entry Fan Duel NFL tourneys:
The $535 pays out $7,500 for 1st, a return of 14.01 buy-ins.
The $100 pays out $5,000 for 1st, a return of 50 buy-ins. (In this tourney you are paying the SAME RAKE as the small tourneys!)
And consider this about the FFFC: If you entered the $270 qualifier that didn't fill, you played with no rake. However, even if you made the final and finished 3rd for $25k... You still made less than 93 buy-ins on your investment.
Thursday, August 30, 2012
Too Many Sites, Not Enough Traffic
And so it has begun.
As it approaches six years of existence, I call this "stage 2" of the daily fantasy sports industry.
There are now well over a dozen live contest sites (maybe even 20 if there's a few I haven't spotted yet).
In this very moment, all of the sites are vying for your dollar just before the start of the NFL season. This is the Black Friday of DFS.
There are plenty of deposit bonuses, freerolls and contest promotions. Play against your favorite fantasy expert or fantasy hottie. (I maintain that none of the experts are good looking and none of the hotties are experts.)
Fan Duel even got mentioned on Deadspin for doing a Jim Rome rip off in one of its commercials.
At first glance, it seems all of this competition is great for the player, and to some extent that's true. If you're just starting out and trying to build bankroll, you can bonus whore a little bit.
What is disappointing (from my point of view) is that the traffic simply cannot support all of the sites at this time.
Why does this suck?
Simply stated, it forces the tournament prize pools down. Sites will roll out a big tourney and if it doesn't fill they adjust the tourney size downwards.
I suppose if you are strictly a heads-up player, this would mean little to you. However, there is so much dead money in the large fields, any decent player would be foolish not to invest in them.
One really great development of this fierce competition is the lowering of rake. Fantasy Sports Live just announced that all of its HU games are now down to 5%. I would be all over that.
So what's "stage 3" of the DFS industry?
There's going to be eventual consolidation. Some of the sites will be bought out. Some will go under. Players will be pissed they lost money with a failing site.
But hopefully traffic will grow steadily so when the consolidation occurs, there will be bigger prize pools for the player.
As it approaches six years of existence, I call this "stage 2" of the daily fantasy sports industry.
There are now well over a dozen live contest sites (maybe even 20 if there's a few I haven't spotted yet).
In this very moment, all of the sites are vying for your dollar just before the start of the NFL season. This is the Black Friday of DFS.
There are plenty of deposit bonuses, freerolls and contest promotions. Play against your favorite fantasy expert or fantasy hottie. (I maintain that none of the experts are good looking and none of the hotties are experts.)
Fan Duel even got mentioned on Deadspin for doing a Jim Rome rip off in one of its commercials.
At first glance, it seems all of this competition is great for the player, and to some extent that's true. If you're just starting out and trying to build bankroll, you can bonus whore a little bit.
What is disappointing (from my point of view) is that the traffic simply cannot support all of the sites at this time.
Why does this suck?
Simply stated, it forces the tournament prize pools down. Sites will roll out a big tourney and if it doesn't fill they adjust the tourney size downwards.
I suppose if you are strictly a heads-up player, this would mean little to you. However, there is so much dead money in the large fields, any decent player would be foolish not to invest in them.
One really great development of this fierce competition is the lowering of rake. Fantasy Sports Live just announced that all of its HU games are now down to 5%. I would be all over that.
So what's "stage 3" of the DFS industry?
There's going to be eventual consolidation. Some of the sites will be bought out. Some will go under. Players will be pissed they lost money with a failing site.
But hopefully traffic will grow steadily so when the consolidation occurs, there will be bigger prize pools for the player.
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Would You Buy Your Way Into A Final?
Just a quck thought about the Fan Duel FFFC, since it seems to be generating a lot of interest.
If you had a "Condia sized" bankroll, would you buy your way into the FFFC final?
Since the $270 qualifiers are limited to 99 entries, would you buy all 99 entries to get a shot at the $150,000?
If you did buy all of the entries, it would only cost you $20,480 because you would receive all of the $6,250 runner-up prizes.
A finals seat has an average value of $14,583. However, you would need to finish 3rd or better to make a certain profit.
I'm assuming anyone as wealthy as Condia wouldn't mind taking a $5k loss for a shot at glory, right?
If you had a "Condia sized" bankroll, would you buy your way into the FFFC final?
Since the $270 qualifiers are limited to 99 entries, would you buy all 99 entries to get a shot at the $150,000?
If you did buy all of the entries, it would only cost you $20,480 because you would receive all of the $6,250 runner-up prizes.
A finals seat has an average value of $14,583. However, you would need to finish 3rd or better to make a certain profit.
I'm assuming anyone as wealthy as Condia wouldn't mind taking a $5k loss for a shot at glory, right?
Thursday, August 16, 2012
The Fan Duel FFFC Is Back, With Outrageous Rake
Fan Duel has been very successful at running the largest tournaments in daily fantasy sports. Their baseball and football events are happenings that attract a lot of press.
This season Fan Duel announced their biggest prize pool yet. The 2012 FFFC will have a finals prize pool of $350,000, with $150,000 going to the winner.
I know these tournies are very popular with the average player. It's kind of a lottery mentality: $10 and a dream. I'm warning you now that if you play these qualifiers heavily, your dream could become a nightmare.
Why?
Because Fan Duel rakes these qualifiers at about twice what they rake the regular tournies.
This season there are two levels of qualifiers: $10 and $270. Let's start with the $270 level, which is capped at 99 entries. Each quaifier awards one seat in the final, with an average value of $14,583. They also award $6,250 in runner up prizes.
That's a payout of $20,833 while taking in $26,730.
Let me do the math for you: $5897 in rake each time. 22.06% rake.
The $10 qualifiers could be even steeper rake, because the tournaments are not capped (while the payouts are identical). There has rarely been an overlay in any DFBC/FFFC qualifier.
I realize it's just fun entertainment for some players to "take their shot". But as I said last year, you are more likely to make a solid profit sticking to the regular NFL tournaments.
This season Fan Duel announced their biggest prize pool yet. The 2012 FFFC will have a finals prize pool of $350,000, with $150,000 going to the winner.
I know these tournies are very popular with the average player. It's kind of a lottery mentality: $10 and a dream. I'm warning you now that if you play these qualifiers heavily, your dream could become a nightmare.
Why?
Because Fan Duel rakes these qualifiers at about twice what they rake the regular tournies.
This season there are two levels of qualifiers: $10 and $270. Let's start with the $270 level, which is capped at 99 entries. Each quaifier awards one seat in the final, with an average value of $14,583. They also award $6,250 in runner up prizes.
That's a payout of $20,833 while taking in $26,730.
Let me do the math for you: $5897 in rake each time. 22.06% rake.
The $10 qualifiers could be even steeper rake, because the tournaments are not capped (while the payouts are identical). There has rarely been an overlay in any DFBC/FFFC qualifier.
I realize it's just fun entertainment for some players to "take their shot". But as I said last year, you are more likely to make a solid profit sticking to the regular NFL tournaments.
Wednesday, August 08, 2012
Punters Need More Love
Well this month has been both crazy hot & mostly without internet access. I haven't played much fantasy at all since the all-star break.
I've seen that some sites have launched week 1 NFL contests, without any major changes. I know that there's a vocal minority out there that wants to see kicking removed from the game.
Some folks view the kicker spot as a "luck" position. This means that all the different kickers are priced similarly, making your choice a guess.
I disagree with that sentiment. Kickers have matchups just like any other position. A team with a horrible red zone offense makes their kicker an attractive pick, he will get more FG chances. Also kickers playing in domes tend to be solid picks.
Going to the other extreme, I would really like to see punters added to DFS rosters.
Punting is a huge part of the game. Punters can sometimes get 10 kicks in a single game. Bill Parcells has said that 100 yards in net field position is worth 7 points for your team. Punting is where most of that field position comes from.
I think adding a punter roster spot and giving .03 pts/yard would be a great addition to daily fantasy football. It would add more depth and complexity, while also helping avoid roster duplication.
I'm really looking forward to NFL to help jump start this year.
I've seen that some sites have launched week 1 NFL contests, without any major changes. I know that there's a vocal minority out there that wants to see kicking removed from the game.
Some folks view the kicker spot as a "luck" position. This means that all the different kickers are priced similarly, making your choice a guess.
I disagree with that sentiment. Kickers have matchups just like any other position. A team with a horrible red zone offense makes their kicker an attractive pick, he will get more FG chances. Also kickers playing in domes tend to be solid picks.
Going to the other extreme, I would really like to see punters added to DFS rosters.
Punting is a huge part of the game. Punters can sometimes get 10 kicks in a single game. Bill Parcells has said that 100 yards in net field position is worth 7 points for your team. Punting is where most of that field position comes from.
I think adding a punter roster spot and giving .03 pts/yard would be a great addition to daily fantasy football. It would add more depth and complexity, while also helping avoid roster duplication.
I'm really looking forward to NFL to help jump start this year.
Saturday, July 07, 2012
Why The Buffalo66 Challenge Will Probably Never Happen
(Ed. note: I just haven't felt like writing much lately. The weather has been too nice and too hot. I've been doing the usual things, just at a lazy summer pace.)
It's been almost a year since I offered my world championship challenge, Including a $5000 bonus for beating me in a series of HU daily fantasy contests.
I've had several inquiries about it and have negotiated with several well known DFS players. But for some reason it always gets down to one or two sticking points that prevent it from happening.
It may seem like I'm being inflexible about it all, but I have conceded many parameters to my challenger's wishes.
And still no takers.
Let's start with the main challenge: 60 snake draft events, 12 each in MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, NASCAR.
Challenger: Can we play for smaller stakes?
Me: Not for a $5k bonus. I will increase or decrease the bonus based upon the stakes.
Challenger: Can we drop the NASCAR?
Me: Sure.
Challenger: Will you escrow the $5k bonus upfront?
Me: Sure.
Challenger: Can we do salary cap instead of drafts?
Me: What if we stay with drafts and I set it up rake free for you?
Challenger: I don't want to play drafts at all.
Me: I will do expert cap instead, but NASCAR must be included.
Challenger: I will need a buyout option.
Me: OK, you can buy out after 12 contests for $XXX. You must escrow as well.
Challenger: OK.
Challenger: I need all contests except NFL to be on weekdays.
Me: This is pretty much impossible. I choose the schedule but you will have weeks (if not months) prepare for any contest. I reserve the right to schedule 2 contests on the same day.
This is pretty much the breaking point in any deal making. I cannot allow the challenger to dictate the schedule when I am providing the overlay (bonus).
It's pretty obvious that the challenger's angle shoot here is to try and flip coins as much as possible for that $5k overlay. Just switching to cap games gives the challenger much more EV.
With all the "championship" series in DFS now, it doesn't seem like my HU challenge is much of a big deal anymore.
Yet I don't understand why any player worth his salt wouldn't go heads-up, possibly RAKE FREE, for $5k.
I know I would.
It's been almost a year since I offered my world championship challenge, Including a $5000 bonus for beating me in a series of HU daily fantasy contests.
I've had several inquiries about it and have negotiated with several well known DFS players. But for some reason it always gets down to one or two sticking points that prevent it from happening.
It may seem like I'm being inflexible about it all, but I have conceded many parameters to my challenger's wishes.
And still no takers.
Let's start with the main challenge: 60 snake draft events, 12 each in MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, NASCAR.
Challenger: Can we play for smaller stakes?
Me: Not for a $5k bonus. I will increase or decrease the bonus based upon the stakes.
Challenger: Can we drop the NASCAR?
Me: Sure.
Challenger: Will you escrow the $5k bonus upfront?
Me: Sure.
Challenger: Can we do salary cap instead of drafts?
Me: What if we stay with drafts and I set it up rake free for you?
Challenger: I don't want to play drafts at all.
Me: I will do expert cap instead, but NASCAR must be included.
Challenger: I will need a buyout option.
Me: OK, you can buy out after 12 contests for $XXX. You must escrow as well.
Challenger: OK.
Challenger: I need all contests except NFL to be on weekdays.
Me: This is pretty much impossible. I choose the schedule but you will have weeks (if not months) prepare for any contest. I reserve the right to schedule 2 contests on the same day.
This is pretty much the breaking point in any deal making. I cannot allow the challenger to dictate the schedule when I am providing the overlay (bonus).
It's pretty obvious that the challenger's angle shoot here is to try and flip coins as much as possible for that $5k overlay. Just switching to cap games gives the challenger much more EV.
With all the "championship" series in DFS now, it doesn't seem like my HU challenge is much of a big deal anymore.
Yet I don't understand why any player worth his salt wouldn't go heads-up, possibly RAKE FREE, for $5k.
I know I would.
Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Slow Rides
The weather has been awesome here in Buffalo, meaning that I have been spending a lot of time outdoors. More specifically, outdoors riding my scooters. Nothing like a fantasy sports nerd combined with a scooter nerd that says, "Wow! What a catch!"
After a great April I hate to say the fantasy gods have not been kind to me this month. I had a horrible last half of the month which kind of puts me right back where I was at the start of the baseball season.
I did experiment with DraftDay during their championship series. There were some things about the way the events were handled I didn't like, but the site hold a lot of promise. I felt I was at a slight disadvantage going into events without any experience there. However, I cashed enough to win most of my entries back.
FanDuel has been varying their tournament prize pools, but enough downward pressure has me thinking about sticking to H2H. Also their regular cap is even softer than before... It's almost like a no cap game now. (Which sucks a lot of skill out of the tournaments.)
So maybe it's time to slow down the pace during the dogs days of summer. Fewer entries & more game selection. Expert cap games. There's no reason to make it any easier for my opponents these days.
Keep cool.
After a great April I hate to say the fantasy gods have not been kind to me this month. I had a horrible last half of the month which kind of puts me right back where I was at the start of the baseball season.
I did experiment with DraftDay during their championship series. There were some things about the way the events were handled I didn't like, but the site hold a lot of promise. I felt I was at a slight disadvantage going into events without any experience there. However, I cashed enough to win most of my entries back.
FanDuel has been varying their tournament prize pools, but enough downward pressure has me thinking about sticking to H2H. Also their regular cap is even softer than before... It's almost like a no cap game now. (Which sucks a lot of skill out of the tournaments.)
So maybe it's time to slow down the pace during the dogs days of summer. Fewer entries & more game selection. Expert cap games. There's no reason to make it any easier for my opponents these days.
Keep cool.
Thursday, May 03, 2012
Motivation In Daily Fantasy Sports Is... Varied
For the first time in my DFS career I took some shots at a "championship". Most of the time these big tournaments are not worth the effort. Your EV is usually found in one day events where the entire prize pool is paid out that day.
However, the DSBC on DraftStreet hold a couple of appealing qualities: Limited entries (per user & entire field), plus significant runner up prizes. I was able to cash in both of the qualifiers I entered for a tidy profit.
I did notice that the 2nd round prizes were somewhat lacking. Of the 40 semi-finalists, places 13th-40th will most likely make less than the players they beat to win their seat.
Now I realize those seats give you a shot at the $35,000 1st prize. If I had won a seat, I would be very nervous about not making the final 12 playoff.
When I pointed this prize discrepancy out, I was met with some hostility. I wasn't trying to rain on anyone's parade. I think it's a neat event.
But it did get me thinking again about what motivates people to play DFS in the first place. Don't all of the contest sites advertise that you can win money for playing DFS? Isn't profit the ultimate motive here?
Apparently not.
Some people play these championship promos just to feed their action jones. They can enter the biggest prize pool very cheap, to get the rush of potentially winning a jackpot.
Others play to feed their ego. They want to be the biggest swinging dick in the room so they need to get in the biggest event around, regardless of the cost.
If others played just for enjoyment, it would be logical to think they would stick to the free games. If they needed prize incentives, freerolls should do the trick.
I play to make money. I look for my best opportunity to turn a profit, so I don't have to go back to humping a lousy job ever again. So many players have come and gone, for various reasons. But the good players who can turn a profit 12 months a year (with maybe two exceptions) are not the ones who win these championships.
It's probably good for my goals that players sometimes don't have a profit motive. That will leave the best money making opportunities undervalued.
However, the DSBC on DraftStreet hold a couple of appealing qualities: Limited entries (per user & entire field), plus significant runner up prizes. I was able to cash in both of the qualifiers I entered for a tidy profit.
I did notice that the 2nd round prizes were somewhat lacking. Of the 40 semi-finalists, places 13th-40th will most likely make less than the players they beat to win their seat.
Now I realize those seats give you a shot at the $35,000 1st prize. If I had won a seat, I would be very nervous about not making the final 12 playoff.
When I pointed this prize discrepancy out, I was met with some hostility. I wasn't trying to rain on anyone's parade. I think it's a neat event.
But it did get me thinking again about what motivates people to play DFS in the first place. Don't all of the contest sites advertise that you can win money for playing DFS? Isn't profit the ultimate motive here?
Apparently not.
Some people play these championship promos just to feed their action jones. They can enter the biggest prize pool very cheap, to get the rush of potentially winning a jackpot.
Others play to feed their ego. They want to be the biggest swinging dick in the room so they need to get in the biggest event around, regardless of the cost.
If others played just for enjoyment, it would be logical to think they would stick to the free games. If they needed prize incentives, freerolls should do the trick.
I play to make money. I look for my best opportunity to turn a profit, so I don't have to go back to humping a lousy job ever again. So many players have come and gone, for various reasons. But the good players who can turn a profit 12 months a year (with maybe two exceptions) are not the ones who win these championships.
It's probably good for my goals that players sometimes don't have a profit motive. That will leave the best money making opportunities undervalued.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
I'm Back, Cranky As Ever
Greetings reader. Glad you stuck around.
It's been a crazy month away from the blog. The weather has been great, allowing me to scooter freely around the B-LO and interact with real life peeps.
However, I just finished the most difficult tax return of my entire life. I had to pay Uncle Sam (and NYS) a large chunk of change. A good portion of that was due to my fantasy sports play last year.
Baseball has started and I'm back playing daily. I even managed to finish first a few times already.
I plan on playing where the biggest every day tournaments are, because that is where the most dead money goes. Realistically, the best way to grow your bankroll is to play large field (along with bonus chasing & rewards). I feel if I was starting out now, it's so much easier to move up in stakes.
March Madness was mostly "March Sadness", as I went 6-12 through the opening rounds & regionals. I did redeem myself a bit during the final four, but betting full kelly can be destructive to your bankroll if you're on a losing streak. I'm right about back where I started since I got back from Vegas. I'll throw my stats up on twitter when I get around to catching up.
As usual, the DFS community (especially the ones that are affiliate driven) are apologists when it comes to bad deals for the players. I heard a podcast "round table" that unanimously agreed RAKE DOESN'T MATTER for the players. This is horse shit, unless your only objective is to lose money.
Another site launched a jackpot promo which at best is playing fast & loose with UIGEA carve out rules. It's a sucker play for the uninformed. It's basically a lotto ticket for fantasy baseball.
What I'm trying to say: If you're a smart shopper, it's pretty easy to make money in this racket.
Now get off of my lawn.
It's been a crazy month away from the blog. The weather has been great, allowing me to scooter freely around the B-LO and interact with real life peeps.
However, I just finished the most difficult tax return of my entire life. I had to pay Uncle Sam (and NYS) a large chunk of change. A good portion of that was due to my fantasy sports play last year.
Baseball has started and I'm back playing daily. I even managed to finish first a few times already.
I plan on playing where the biggest every day tournaments are, because that is where the most dead money goes. Realistically, the best way to grow your bankroll is to play large field (along with bonus chasing & rewards). I feel if I was starting out now, it's so much easier to move up in stakes.
March Madness was mostly "March Sadness", as I went 6-12 through the opening rounds & regionals. I did redeem myself a bit during the final four, but betting full kelly can be destructive to your bankroll if you're on a losing streak. I'm right about back where I started since I got back from Vegas. I'll throw my stats up on twitter when I get around to catching up.
As usual, the DFS community (especially the ones that are affiliate driven) are apologists when it comes to bad deals for the players. I heard a podcast "round table" that unanimously agreed RAKE DOESN'T MATTER for the players. This is horse shit, unless your only objective is to lose money.
Another site launched a jackpot promo which at best is playing fast & loose with UIGEA carve out rules. It's a sucker play for the uninformed. It's basically a lotto ticket for fantasy baseball.
What I'm trying to say: If you're a smart shopper, it's pretty easy to make money in this racket.
Now get off of my lawn.
Tuesday, March 06, 2012
What Really Needs To Happen In Daily Fantasy Sports
There is ongoing discussion over what will trigger the "explosion" in daily fantasy sports that most industry experts are predicting.
The most popular opinion is that the large field events with blockbuster prizes will attract the most attention. However, this really hasn't been the case up to now.
For example, how has Beermakersfan $75k win in the FFFC really helped the industry? While the victory was a great story (and couldn't have happened to a nicer guy), does it really create more full time players for the site? Does it create more churn for the site? Not likely.
My feeling is the sites run these tourneys to try and recreate the "Moneymaker effect" that happened in online poker. Once Moneymaker's story of turning $40 into a WSOP win became public, many casual players tried to follow suit.
So how exactly can DFS follow that model? I'm not sure that they can, at least at this point. If you were to continue down this path, sites will have to offer much larger tournaments, probably larger than their traffic can afford to support. Unlike poker, DFS prize pools are fixed, meaning that they risk a huge overlay to try and run a tourney on a WSOP scale.
Another drawback is the sites usually rake these huge tourneys over 20%, almost twice what a WSOP event rakes.
So how can DFS grow exponentially without the giant donkament?
The answer is simple - nosebleeds. The sites need to develop high stakes regulars. Two things required to make this happen:
-An incentive for current regs to move up in stakes.
-Transparency for both winner and losers in high stakes contests.
Let's go back to the poker analogy for a second. How many sites/forums are dedicated to railing high stakes cash poker players? Their winning/losing sessions are meticulously recorded & rehashed. There are so many fanboys of these games, that would give almost anything they have to be a part of it.
If the DFS sites offered greatly reduced rake for high stakes games, it would help generate more big games. They could also offer RB on games over a certain buy-in. But they need to find a way to steer their high volume players towards those games.
Knowing who are the biggest winners AND losers at high stakes is also crucial to the equation. Whenever high stakes game run on the sites, they should be promoted and blogged.
Remember when Kaiseroll13 "won $17k on Fan Duel in a month" campaign was running? That number has easily been reached on a weekly, if not daily basis by many.
It seems like that was a silly marketing ploy, but I bet that it brought more growth to the site than any tournament. (By growth I mean churn, not new users registering.)
There are other promotional angles I would like to discuss but this post is getting too long.
Simply put, promote nosebleeds and more players will want to play them.
The most popular opinion is that the large field events with blockbuster prizes will attract the most attention. However, this really hasn't been the case up to now.
For example, how has Beermakersfan $75k win in the FFFC really helped the industry? While the victory was a great story (and couldn't have happened to a nicer guy), does it really create more full time players for the site? Does it create more churn for the site? Not likely.
My feeling is the sites run these tourneys to try and recreate the "Moneymaker effect" that happened in online poker. Once Moneymaker's story of turning $40 into a WSOP win became public, many casual players tried to follow suit.
So how exactly can DFS follow that model? I'm not sure that they can, at least at this point. If you were to continue down this path, sites will have to offer much larger tournaments, probably larger than their traffic can afford to support. Unlike poker, DFS prize pools are fixed, meaning that they risk a huge overlay to try and run a tourney on a WSOP scale.
Another drawback is the sites usually rake these huge tourneys over 20%, almost twice what a WSOP event rakes.
So how can DFS grow exponentially without the giant donkament?
The answer is simple - nosebleeds. The sites need to develop high stakes regulars. Two things required to make this happen:
-An incentive for current regs to move up in stakes.
-Transparency for both winner and losers in high stakes contests.
Let's go back to the poker analogy for a second. How many sites/forums are dedicated to railing high stakes cash poker players? Their winning/losing sessions are meticulously recorded & rehashed. There are so many fanboys of these games, that would give almost anything they have to be a part of it.
If the DFS sites offered greatly reduced rake for high stakes games, it would help generate more big games. They could also offer RB on games over a certain buy-in. But they need to find a way to steer their high volume players towards those games.
Knowing who are the biggest winners AND losers at high stakes is also crucial to the equation. Whenever high stakes game run on the sites, they should be promoted and blogged.
Remember when Kaiseroll13 "won $17k on Fan Duel in a month" campaign was running? That number has easily been reached on a weekly, if not daily basis by many.
It seems like that was a silly marketing ploy, but I bet that it brought more growth to the site than any tournament. (By growth I mean churn, not new users registering.)
There are other promotional angles I would like to discuss but this post is getting too long.
Simply put, promote nosebleeds and more players will want to play them.
Monday, February 27, 2012
I Have To Give DraftStreet Credit When Credit Is Due
Although I haven't been playing any fantasy lately, I've been scouting out places to get some draft match-ups.
Several of the major fantasy sites don't even offer draft games, so it's a limited pool for those types of contests.
While checking out Draftstreet, I noticed that their largest buy-in games are $420 for an $800 prize pool. This means they are the first contest site to offer 5% rake on any buy-in over $1.
I really feel that 5% SHOULD be an industry standard for HU high stakes games. It takes the same amount of resources to run a $420 game as it does to run an $11 game.
Some sites rake 20% on their largest tourneys - and I'm OK with that. I usually pass those up, but I personally feel the sites can rake the large fields as high as they want.
Those of you who visit regularly know I don't feel great about the way Draftstreet treated me in the past. But I readily admit they offer great games with deep rosters and scoring tables.
I may be giving them another chance, if I can get action at those stakes.
Several of the major fantasy sites don't even offer draft games, so it's a limited pool for those types of contests.
While checking out Draftstreet, I noticed that their largest buy-in games are $420 for an $800 prize pool. This means they are the first contest site to offer 5% rake on any buy-in over $1.
I really feel that 5% SHOULD be an industry standard for HU high stakes games. It takes the same amount of resources to run a $420 game as it does to run an $11 game.
Some sites rake 20% on their largest tourneys - and I'm OK with that. I usually pass those up, but I personally feel the sites can rake the large fields as high as they want.
Those of you who visit regularly know I don't feel great about the way Draftstreet treated me in the past. But I readily admit they offer great games with deep rosters and scoring tables.
I may be giving them another chance, if I can get action at those stakes.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
What Happened In Vegas Isn't Staying There
It's been an adjustment settling back in Buffalo after my extended trip to Las Vegas. While the winter has been very mild, I enjoyed the warm weather out west.
I took about 25% of my fantasy bankroll with me to use for sports betting. I finished down a few hundred, including all I spent on food & drink. My deficit can be directly attributed to my losing Super Bowl wager.
Although I excel in fantasy football, I have a shoddy history wagering on NFL. I won't rehash the game again, but my bet was strictly a "fade the public" play. It was obvious the books were steering public money to the Giants.
The two weeks in Vegas was sort of an epiphany for me. When my time there was up, I realized I had finally found my sports betting groove. I enjoy the numbers aspect of it - handicapping the games, following the line moves and calculating bet sizes.
I realized on my way home that I should be spending more time with this area of the sports market. Since then I've rededicated myself to finding ways to place the occasional wager. Results have been positive thus far.
I'm setting a benchmark of success that would precipitate a return to Vegas. I did want to return for March Madness but I'll probably give myself a larger sample size before going back.
Just to be clear, I'm in no way abandoning my fantasy play. Even though there are more functioning contest sites than ever, there are still only a few decent places to play. The lack of high dollar tournaments (until baseball) will probably have me looking for a few matchups in NASCAR and NHL.
If you want to follow (or fade) my picks you can find them on my twitter page.
I took about 25% of my fantasy bankroll with me to use for sports betting. I finished down a few hundred, including all I spent on food & drink. My deficit can be directly attributed to my losing Super Bowl wager.
Although I excel in fantasy football, I have a shoddy history wagering on NFL. I won't rehash the game again, but my bet was strictly a "fade the public" play. It was obvious the books were steering public money to the Giants.
The two weeks in Vegas was sort of an epiphany for me. When my time there was up, I realized I had finally found my sports betting groove. I enjoy the numbers aspect of it - handicapping the games, following the line moves and calculating bet sizes.
I realized on my way home that I should be spending more time with this area of the sports market. Since then I've rededicated myself to finding ways to place the occasional wager. Results have been positive thus far.
I'm setting a benchmark of success that would precipitate a return to Vegas. I did want to return for March Madness but I'll probably give myself a larger sample size before going back.
Just to be clear, I'm in no way abandoning my fantasy play. Even though there are more functioning contest sites than ever, there are still only a few decent places to play. The lack of high dollar tournaments (until baseball) will probably have me looking for a few matchups in NASCAR and NHL.
If you want to follow (or fade) my picks you can find them on my twitter page.
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Stacking Is Directly Related to The Scoring Table
This is something I thought about on the plane ride back from Vegas.
The stacking strategy in daily fantasy sports is mostly successful in hockey and baseball, while unsuccessful in football and basketball. Why?
Simply put, it's the way the contests are scored.
In NFL or NBA, players can contribute mightily in a losing effort. Kobe gonna get his on most nights. MJD or Rob Bironas could win you big bucks, even if their team was blown out 44-18.
In the other sports, the scoring tables discourage parity, thus encouraging stacking.
If your NHL player is on the bad end of a 5-0 shutout, his only potential for scoring positive fantasy points are shots on goal & penalty minutes.
At Fan Duel, it takes 10 SOG to equal the fantasy points for scoring a even strength goal. That doesn't happen very often.
Also, scoring for PIMs was cut 50% on Fan Duel. This is a double whammy because fighting and misconducts are down over 25% this season.
Even if your players racked up those stats, his +/- in the loss probably negated any gains.
Over in MLB, a similar scenario occurs. If your hitter is facing a 9-0 deficit, his team is less likely to play small ball (sacrifice and steal bases). It's more likely subs will play meaningful innings at that point.
I will say that stacking suits baseball the best because there is the highest chance of lopsided games. That's just based on probability, as they have the highest volume regular season.
If fantasy sites want to remove stacking from the game, they need to develop scoring formulas with more depth. BB by a pitcher is poor defense, but it's not scored some places. Errors aren't scored on any of the major sites. Strikeouts are unproductive outs for hitters, so are GIDP.
In hockey, you could easily add hits, blocked shots and faceoffs won to the table. Also shootout goals would be a fun touch.
The sites have a balancing act between making the games easy to play for newbies and keeping their top rake generators happy. However, the more they make their big money contests like a lotto ticket, the less likely I'll be playing.
The stacking strategy in daily fantasy sports is mostly successful in hockey and baseball, while unsuccessful in football and basketball. Why?
Simply put, it's the way the contests are scored.
In NFL or NBA, players can contribute mightily in a losing effort. Kobe gonna get his on most nights. MJD or Rob Bironas could win you big bucks, even if their team was blown out 44-18.
In the other sports, the scoring tables discourage parity, thus encouraging stacking.
If your NHL player is on the bad end of a 5-0 shutout, his only potential for scoring positive fantasy points are shots on goal & penalty minutes.
At Fan Duel, it takes 10 SOG to equal the fantasy points for scoring a even strength goal. That doesn't happen very often.
Also, scoring for PIMs was cut 50% on Fan Duel. This is a double whammy because fighting and misconducts are down over 25% this season.
Even if your players racked up those stats, his +/- in the loss probably negated any gains.
Over in MLB, a similar scenario occurs. If your hitter is facing a 9-0 deficit, his team is less likely to play small ball (sacrifice and steal bases). It's more likely subs will play meaningful innings at that point.
I will say that stacking suits baseball the best because there is the highest chance of lopsided games. That's just based on probability, as they have the highest volume regular season.
If fantasy sites want to remove stacking from the game, they need to develop scoring formulas with more depth. BB by a pitcher is poor defense, but it's not scored some places. Errors aren't scored on any of the major sites. Strikeouts are unproductive outs for hitters, so are GIDP.
In hockey, you could easily add hits, blocked shots and faceoffs won to the table. Also shootout goals would be a fun touch.
The sites have a balancing act between making the games easy to play for newbies and keeping their top rake generators happy. However, the more they make their big money contests like a lotto ticket, the less likely I'll be playing.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Fantasy Sports Grinding: The Wheat Thin Example
So there's a new Condia interview out, where he claims to have put his "entire life savings" on the line in weeks 1 & 2 of NFL. I don't buy it for one second. He was crushed in week 2, so that would have completely crippled his bankroll for the rest of the season.
I'm not trying to take away anything from Condia, he is an excellent fantasy player. The point I'm trying to make is that the industry will always promote the biggest rake generators over the players with superior ROI.
This is why the RG rankings are so flawed. They discount multiple tourney cashes, while crediting every HU cash. When I put seven top 20 finishes in a 2500+ player tourney, only one of my cashes count towards the rankings. (I only entered 24 times, less than 1% of the total entries.)
Both RG and the contest sites have a specific reason for promoting the biggest rake generators: It makes them more money. They want you to shoot for the leader board, because you will spend more of your money to get there.
Let me give you a real world example of the same concepts. Wheat Thins.
In terms of Wheat Thins, Condia is the person who buys the most Wheat Thins in the land. The maker of Wheat Thins notices this and decides to use him to promote their product. They might feature him in a commercial or give him some award for consuming the most Wheat Thins.
"Look how great Wheat Thins are! He spends so much on them, they must be awesome!"
However, a good ROI player is the person who spends the least per box of Wheat Thins. He might not have as many Wheat Thins, but he will never need the huge bankroll to buy the amount desired.
There is absolutely no incentive for the maker of Wheat Thins to acknowledge or promote this person. They want you to spend more!
Regardless of what RG or any contest site says, they do not want to help you maximize profits. They want you to spend... In order to achieve some ranking that has no monetary reward.
Those badges & freerolls don't usually end up on your 1099, unless you win. And that's a BIG if.
Think about it.
I'm going to Vegas for two weeks starting tomorrow. Follow my twitter page for picks & updates.
I'm not trying to take away anything from Condia, he is an excellent fantasy player. The point I'm trying to make is that the industry will always promote the biggest rake generators over the players with superior ROI.
This is why the RG rankings are so flawed. They discount multiple tourney cashes, while crediting every HU cash. When I put seven top 20 finishes in a 2500+ player tourney, only one of my cashes count towards the rankings. (I only entered 24 times, less than 1% of the total entries.)
Both RG and the contest sites have a specific reason for promoting the biggest rake generators: It makes them more money. They want you to shoot for the leader board, because you will spend more of your money to get there.
Let me give you a real world example of the same concepts. Wheat Thins.
In terms of Wheat Thins, Condia is the person who buys the most Wheat Thins in the land. The maker of Wheat Thins notices this and decides to use him to promote their product. They might feature him in a commercial or give him some award for consuming the most Wheat Thins.
"Look how great Wheat Thins are! He spends so much on them, they must be awesome!"
However, a good ROI player is the person who spends the least per box of Wheat Thins. He might not have as many Wheat Thins, but he will never need the huge bankroll to buy the amount desired.
There is absolutely no incentive for the maker of Wheat Thins to acknowledge or promote this person. They want you to spend more!
Regardless of what RG or any contest site says, they do not want to help you maximize profits. They want you to spend... In order to achieve some ranking that has no monetary reward.
Those badges & freerolls don't usually end up on your 1099, unless you win. And that's a BIG if.
Think about it.
I'm going to Vegas for two weeks starting tomorrow. Follow my twitter page for picks & updates.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
The First Stop On My Journey Is Home
I finally get to start my nomadic journey today. Surprisingly, I'm traveling back to CNY to visit some friends & family.
I have a relative in the hospital and I want to make sure he's doing OK. Other than a couple of good meals, this is a chance to unwind away from my PC.
I have a short list of cities I want to visit before spring arrives. I haven't booked much of the travel yet but it's just a matter of logistics at this point.
I cashed out the majority of my fantasy bankroll and would be surprised if I played much going forward until baseball. Maybe some tournaments, if anything.
I'll probably sneak in some horse betting for sure.
Right now I'm focused on looking for the next great opportunity in my life. I can always come right back to this.
I'll keep you posted.
I have a relative in the hospital and I want to make sure he's doing OK. Other than a couple of good meals, this is a chance to unwind away from my PC.
I have a short list of cities I want to visit before spring arrives. I haven't booked much of the travel yet but it's just a matter of logistics at this point.
I cashed out the majority of my fantasy bankroll and would be surprised if I played much going forward until baseball. Maybe some tournaments, if anything.
I'll probably sneak in some horse betting for sure.
Right now I'm focused on looking for the next great opportunity in my life. I can always come right back to this.
I'll keep you posted.
Wednesday, January 11, 2012
I Think It's Time For A Walkabout
After a great December I still find myself in a big hole for the new year. While I have only given back 25% of last month's profits, it's an unusual situation to be down this deep early in a month.
I also find myself stymied with current daily fantasy options before me. I have been working hard at NBA because that is where the money flows. My results have been fair at best, losing quite a few close games. It seems to come down to 3v3 or even 1v1 every night, thanks to roster duplication (stemming from obvious value).
NHL is pretty much fucked for the rest of the year. The traffic has completely disappeared at high stakes and the tournament prize pools have been shrinking. My research time is better spent on hoops, where a $10 entry can win $1600 as opposed to $300 in hockey.
Faced with spending three months working the sport I like least, I'm considering taking a "walkabout".
Since I'm not an Aboriginal Australian (and I don't want to offend any), I'm using the North American version. It's an interruption of work to go on a nomadic journey, sometimes of a spiritual nature.
I think it might be time for me to see what's out there for a bit.
I have struggled with making some life decisions for a few months. I like my life and I like living in Buffalo. But I also might be sacrificing some great opportunities that lie elsewhere.
There are better places for me to handle my health issues. There are places that would allow me greater sports investing. I'm guessing there are places that would make life more comfortable for me, such as a warmer climate.
I just need to go see for myself. Figure things out.
So I'll probably play a light schedule of fantasy contests while I book my travel. I want to go where the wind takes me for awhile.
More on the subject soon.
I also find myself stymied with current daily fantasy options before me. I have been working hard at NBA because that is where the money flows. My results have been fair at best, losing quite a few close games. It seems to come down to 3v3 or even 1v1 every night, thanks to roster duplication (stemming from obvious value).
NHL is pretty much fucked for the rest of the year. The traffic has completely disappeared at high stakes and the tournament prize pools have been shrinking. My research time is better spent on hoops, where a $10 entry can win $1600 as opposed to $300 in hockey.
Faced with spending three months working the sport I like least, I'm considering taking a "walkabout".
Since I'm not an Aboriginal Australian (and I don't want to offend any), I'm using the North American version. It's an interruption of work to go on a nomadic journey, sometimes of a spiritual nature.
I think it might be time for me to see what's out there for a bit.
I have struggled with making some life decisions for a few months. I like my life and I like living in Buffalo. But I also might be sacrificing some great opportunities that lie elsewhere.
There are better places for me to handle my health issues. There are places that would allow me greater sports investing. I'm guessing there are places that would make life more comfortable for me, such as a warmer climate.
I just need to go see for myself. Figure things out.
So I'll probably play a light schedule of fantasy contests while I book my travel. I want to go where the wind takes me for awhile.
More on the subject soon.
Tuesday, January 03, 2012
OT: The Lauren Situation
Sorry if I've neglected this space for a bit. It was a busy month, although not with the usual holiday BS one would expect.
I actually had my best personal month fantasy-wise, although New Year's weekend was a huge let down. While December was a cash cow, January already looks like a hole I'll have to dig out from under.
I've been struggling for a few weeks over writing this post. It's personal. I don't like to go off point too much here. I try to protect my privacy somewhat, but I think writing about what's going on in my life helps me process things.
For the first time in a LONG time, I let myself get involved in a relationship. To be honest, I've been doing much more end of life planning than the "build a life together" stuff. I know what a hassle closing an estate can be - I want to be prepared for that when the other shoe drops on me.
Most of my friends that have asked for relationship advice know my oft quoted mantra, "Relationships are overrated." I have had little to no success in this area and the majority of my social circle haven't fared much better. I see the misery a soured affair brings to one of my crew.
And then, I met Lauren.
Somehow this woman comes into my life. Very attractive, age appropriate, not perfect by any means. I never spent time with her considering the prospect of a relationship. But she always managed to say the things I always looked for in a prospective mate.
If possibility was a locked door, she found the crack in it and busted it wide open. My usual pessimistic self was put on the back burner for a more optimistic version.
After about two months in, things began to unravel. While I never asked for a committed relationship, Lauren's words didn't jibe with her actions. My Spidey sense started tingling and what was her huge house of cards came crashing down.
Simply put, this woman was (is) a compulsive liar. She completely deceived me as to what was going on in her life, so much so that she ended up in jail for the last week. It's really too bad, because her honesty at some point would've ended up with me helping her probably avoiding that whole situation. Now it's out of my hands.
I struggle with the notion of how much of her was genuine towards me. 50%? 10%? Zero? Who really knows.
The only positive thing I can take from this is that deep down... Way down, I'm still open to not living my life alone. I accept that I'll most likely spend the rest of my years riding solo. But it's nice to think that I'm not totally shut off to the opportunity, should one arise.
Now back to our regularly scheduled blogging.
I actually had my best personal month fantasy-wise, although New Year's weekend was a huge let down. While December was a cash cow, January already looks like a hole I'll have to dig out from under.
I've been struggling for a few weeks over writing this post. It's personal. I don't like to go off point too much here. I try to protect my privacy somewhat, but I think writing about what's going on in my life helps me process things.
For the first time in a LONG time, I let myself get involved in a relationship. To be honest, I've been doing much more end of life planning than the "build a life together" stuff. I know what a hassle closing an estate can be - I want to be prepared for that when the other shoe drops on me.
Most of my friends that have asked for relationship advice know my oft quoted mantra, "Relationships are overrated." I have had little to no success in this area and the majority of my social circle haven't fared much better. I see the misery a soured affair brings to one of my crew.
And then, I met Lauren.
Somehow this woman comes into my life. Very attractive, age appropriate, not perfect by any means. I never spent time with her considering the prospect of a relationship. But she always managed to say the things I always looked for in a prospective mate.
If possibility was a locked door, she found the crack in it and busted it wide open. My usual pessimistic self was put on the back burner for a more optimistic version.
After about two months in, things began to unravel. While I never asked for a committed relationship, Lauren's words didn't jibe with her actions. My Spidey sense started tingling and what was her huge house of cards came crashing down.
Simply put, this woman was (is) a compulsive liar. She completely deceived me as to what was going on in her life, so much so that she ended up in jail for the last week. It's really too bad, because her honesty at some point would've ended up with me helping her probably avoiding that whole situation. Now it's out of my hands.
I struggle with the notion of how much of her was genuine towards me. 50%? 10%? Zero? Who really knows.
The only positive thing I can take from this is that deep down... Way down, I'm still open to not living my life alone. I accept that I'll most likely spend the rest of my years riding solo. But it's nice to think that I'm not totally shut off to the opportunity, should one arise.
Now back to our regularly scheduled blogging.
Thursday, December 01, 2011
Update On My World Championship Challenge
Well, it has been about six months since I offered up the $5k bonus fantasy sports challenge.
I've had five serious offers to take me on, but none of them are willing to challenge me based on the terms originally outlined.
The biggest obstacle so far seems to be the draft format. I know salary cap games are more popular, but why would that matter to an experienced player? Draft games give each user a unique roster. This requires you to pick depth.
Playing a cap game with a shallow roster will result in each side having many identical players. That's flipping coins, and I'm not flipping coins with a $5k overlay against me.
I will still consider playing cap games with the deepest rosters possible. However, all sports must be included.
Other players have asked me to run the challenge at lower stakes, yet they still want the full $5k bonus. So I'm supposed to risk this money without any chance to make any money myself? I'll pass on that scenario.
Almost all of the potential challengers want to drop the NASCAR portion. It is a legitimate fantasy sport, although not a popular one in the daily format. I think the more sports in the challenge, the better - I'd be willing to add additional disciplines, such as golf or college sports.
Finally, In my most recent offer to a prospective challenger, I've offered:
-To escrow the entire bonus up front
-Set up the challenge RAKE FREE for the challenger.
IMO, that is a tremendous offer. In fact, it reduces my earnings potential by almost 10%. It shows I'm willing to give up that much to make this happen.
So far, this has not been good enough terms for any daily fantasy player. I don't really know why, it seems all of the risk is on me.
I've had five serious offers to take me on, but none of them are willing to challenge me based on the terms originally outlined.
The biggest obstacle so far seems to be the draft format. I know salary cap games are more popular, but why would that matter to an experienced player? Draft games give each user a unique roster. This requires you to pick depth.
Playing a cap game with a shallow roster will result in each side having many identical players. That's flipping coins, and I'm not flipping coins with a $5k overlay against me.
I will still consider playing cap games with the deepest rosters possible. However, all sports must be included.
Other players have asked me to run the challenge at lower stakes, yet they still want the full $5k bonus. So I'm supposed to risk this money without any chance to make any money myself? I'll pass on that scenario.
Almost all of the potential challengers want to drop the NASCAR portion. It is a legitimate fantasy sport, although not a popular one in the daily format. I think the more sports in the challenge, the better - I'd be willing to add additional disciplines, such as golf or college sports.
Finally, In my most recent offer to a prospective challenger, I've offered:
-To escrow the entire bonus up front
-Set up the challenge RAKE FREE for the challenger.
IMO, that is a tremendous offer. In fact, it reduces my earnings potential by almost 10%. It shows I'm willing to give up that much to make this happen.
So far, this has not been good enough terms for any daily fantasy player. I don't really know why, it seems all of the risk is on me.
Friday, November 25, 2011
Am I A Fantasy Sports Bully?
Recently, I was called out in the Fan Duel chat area as a horrible fantasy player. My usual immediate response is to offer up a $535 matchup. If I am so bad, why would you not accept? Consider this:
-You would WANT to play a bad player at the highest stakes possible, to bust that player the quickest.
-You would WANT to play a bad player at the highest stakes possible, to spend the LEAST rake to bust him/her.
Now I understand that some players cannot afford to play that high, but why not counter offer with a $270 or $109? At least some meaningful stakes with reduced rake?
All I'm looking for is consistent high stakes action. Over time, my EV increases if I get my money in with minimal drag of the rake.
I realize some players just do this for fun, but I'm looking to use my edges to make some money. I have a profit motive.
Maybe some people just like to talk a good game.
So tell me, am I just being a bully while trying to defend myself here? Is there a better way to go about getting high stakes games?
-You would WANT to play a bad player at the highest stakes possible, to bust that player the quickest.
-You would WANT to play a bad player at the highest stakes possible, to spend the LEAST rake to bust him/her.
Now I understand that some players cannot afford to play that high, but why not counter offer with a $270 or $109? At least some meaningful stakes with reduced rake?
All I'm looking for is consistent high stakes action. Over time, my EV increases if I get my money in with minimal drag of the rake.
I realize some players just do this for fun, but I'm looking to use my edges to make some money. I have a profit motive.
Maybe some people just like to talk a good game.
So tell me, am I just being a bully while trying to defend myself here? Is there a better way to go about getting high stakes games?
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
A Quick Tought About Rake & Bankroll Management
I was discussing bankroll management with a few other players and was very surprised at how varied players are at growing their rolls.
When I started out I used a 20 buy-in strategy to determine my stakes. At the time, I was pretty much forced to play HU contests with small entry fees.
With the explosion of player traffic, I can now afford to play much bigger stakes with less rake.
What about a newb starting out now? How should they attack the lobby?
I think the best value for a low stakes player is the large field tournament. You can even afford to drop multiple entries in a cheap buy-in. The potential ROI is much better than HU, even though the rake is similar.
However, if you're concentrating on HU, you might be better served to play higher sooner. On Fan Duel, the rake is identical from $1-$50 games. Only at $109 does the rake begin to drop.
It is a steep slope to climb before you can comfortably play without risk of ruin.
Some players told me they would only put 5% of their balance in play on a given night. I find that too conservative. The remaining money is just sitting there, not working for you. Besides, you can deposit instantly and withdraw almost as fast.
I think you should always have a portion of your bankroll aside to jump on a juicy deposit bonus. Every bit the site gives back will help combat the rake.
I guess the point is this: Consider how to get to the lower rake games the quickest, minimizing the drag rake will have on your bankroll.
When I started out I used a 20 buy-in strategy to determine my stakes. At the time, I was pretty much forced to play HU contests with small entry fees.
With the explosion of player traffic, I can now afford to play much bigger stakes with less rake.
What about a newb starting out now? How should they attack the lobby?
I think the best value for a low stakes player is the large field tournament. You can even afford to drop multiple entries in a cheap buy-in. The potential ROI is much better than HU, even though the rake is similar.
However, if you're concentrating on HU, you might be better served to play higher sooner. On Fan Duel, the rake is identical from $1-$50 games. Only at $109 does the rake begin to drop.
It is a steep slope to climb before you can comfortably play without risk of ruin.
Some players told me they would only put 5% of their balance in play on a given night. I find that too conservative. The remaining money is just sitting there, not working for you. Besides, you can deposit instantly and withdraw almost as fast.
I think you should always have a portion of your bankroll aside to jump on a juicy deposit bonus. Every bit the site gives back will help combat the rake.
I guess the point is this: Consider how to get to the lower rake games the quickest, minimizing the drag rake will have on your bankroll.
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Fantasy Hockey Tournaments Are Suffering
I was thrilled with the increase in traffic for this NHL season. With the expansion of the daily fantasy player base, it was a certainty that fantasy hockey tournaments would increase over last year.
However, while NHL tournaments have increased in frequency, they have not increased in quality.
Fan Duel has rolled out a tournament schedule with a mixture of single entry and multiple entry events.
I'm disappointed to say they the buy-ins and the field sizes almost preclude me from playing them anymore.
For example, the "Save" tournament offers a $5 entry and a field size of 167. If you finish 6th, likely scoring way above expectation, you win $30. Now playing a generic $5, 10 player contest can win you $45 by finishing 1st - a much more likely scenario.
So which is the better value?
I'm sad to report that the larger tourneys are filling up with regularity, but the prize pools have not grown. The $10 buy-in remains at $2500 and the $25 buy-in remains at $3000. They did run a $50 tourney last week but I have no idea if that will become a regular event.
Fan Duel has done an excellent job of building market share by offering the biggest prize pools in each sport. But it seems with hockey they either don't care, or they are trying to steer that money into other sports, such as college hoops.
I believe that if the prizes are big enough, any sport will attract the "smart" money.
However, while NHL tournaments have increased in frequency, they have not increased in quality.
Fan Duel has rolled out a tournament schedule with a mixture of single entry and multiple entry events.
I'm disappointed to say they the buy-ins and the field sizes almost preclude me from playing them anymore.
For example, the "Save" tournament offers a $5 entry and a field size of 167. If you finish 6th, likely scoring way above expectation, you win $30. Now playing a generic $5, 10 player contest can win you $45 by finishing 1st - a much more likely scenario.
So which is the better value?
I'm sad to report that the larger tourneys are filling up with regularity, but the prize pools have not grown. The $10 buy-in remains at $2500 and the $25 buy-in remains at $3000. They did run a $50 tourney last week but I have no idea if that will become a regular event.
Fan Duel has done an excellent job of building market share by offering the biggest prize pools in each sport. But it seems with hockey they either don't care, or they are trying to steer that money into other sports, such as college hoops.
I believe that if the prizes are big enough, any sport will attract the "smart" money.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Anatomy Of A Downswing
I've been meaning to write about one of my least favorite topics this week. Losing.
Simply stated, I got my butt whipped pretty hard the first week of November. I was shut out in week 8 of football, a rarity for me.
Over that same week, I experienced a six day losing streak in hockey. It was a tough stretch. I was a little unlucky with some injuries and some bad plus/minus scenarios.
There aren't many regular fantasy players that like to talk about losing. Even after 5 years, it still stings when you ride that variance roller coaster towards the bottom.
I continued playing well within my bankroll, not chasing losses. I finally broke through with a winning night on Saturday, putting up a solid score.
One silver lining is my continued success against Rudzia555 & Ohmsy. If they hadn't shied away from my high stakes games, I might be behind there too.
However, I'm happy to report that I crushed in week 9 NFL, gaining back all of my losses for the month. Maybe this week the good variance will shine on me.
I'm hoping the addition of NCAA basketball will give me the diversity of contests needed to avoid another losing streak for some time to come.
Simply stated, I got my butt whipped pretty hard the first week of November. I was shut out in week 8 of football, a rarity for me.
Over that same week, I experienced a six day losing streak in hockey. It was a tough stretch. I was a little unlucky with some injuries and some bad plus/minus scenarios.
There aren't many regular fantasy players that like to talk about losing. Even after 5 years, it still stings when you ride that variance roller coaster towards the bottom.
I continued playing well within my bankroll, not chasing losses. I finally broke through with a winning night on Saturday, putting up a solid score.
One silver lining is my continued success against Rudzia555 & Ohmsy. If they hadn't shied away from my high stakes games, I might be behind there too.
However, I'm happy to report that I crushed in week 9 NFL, gaining back all of my losses for the month. Maybe this week the good variance will shine on me.
I'm hoping the addition of NCAA basketball will give me the diversity of contests needed to avoid another losing streak for some time to come.
Monday, October 31, 2011
I Take Issue With The "Degen" Monicker
This is something I've been thinking about for quite some time.
In the gambling world amongst poker players and all types of bettors, degen is tossed around as a term of affection for action junkies. Some online forums even have their own "degen index."
Degen is a shortened form of degenerate. It doesn't matter if you're talking about degenerative gamblers or degenerative diseases. Degenerate implies that something declines or deteriorates.
I've never considered myself a degen and I'm slightly offended when someone calls me that.
I've been involved in gambling/gaming semi-professionally for a few years. In most of my disciplines I've grown to play bigger stakes. Does that make me a degen? Hell, no. In fact, it's quite the opposite.
My poker experiences trained me to be a bankroll nit. What this means (for you non-gamblers) is that I protected myself from going broke. I experienced some swings up and down. When I was losing I jumped down in stakes to ensure I always had funds to keep going.
That experience allowed me to nurse my cumulative bankroll to it's current state, where I can play the highest stakes in fantasy contests.
Any sports investing (horses, sports betting, fantasy) requires enough bankroll to withstand variance. It also requires willpower to get your money in at the right times. Betting only horses with value. Avoiding high juice/vig. Avoiding high rake in fantasy tournaments. No chasing losses.
Basically, anyone calling me a degen is trying to tell me I don't know what I'm doing. While I certainly don't know everything - to quote Jay-Z, "I know a 'lil bit".
I do think there are some areas of my life where I might be considered a true "degen". Probably my declining health at least. I've definitely taken risks there. I guess that makes Steve Jobs a degen too.
In the gambling world amongst poker players and all types of bettors, degen is tossed around as a term of affection for action junkies. Some online forums even have their own "degen index."
Degen is a shortened form of degenerate. It doesn't matter if you're talking about degenerative gamblers or degenerative diseases. Degenerate implies that something declines or deteriorates.
I've never considered myself a degen and I'm slightly offended when someone calls me that.
I've been involved in gambling/gaming semi-professionally for a few years. In most of my disciplines I've grown to play bigger stakes. Does that make me a degen? Hell, no. In fact, it's quite the opposite.
My poker experiences trained me to be a bankroll nit. What this means (for you non-gamblers) is that I protected myself from going broke. I experienced some swings up and down. When I was losing I jumped down in stakes to ensure I always had funds to keep going.
That experience allowed me to nurse my cumulative bankroll to it's current state, where I can play the highest stakes in fantasy contests.
Any sports investing (horses, sports betting, fantasy) requires enough bankroll to withstand variance. It also requires willpower to get your money in at the right times. Betting only horses with value. Avoiding high juice/vig. Avoiding high rake in fantasy tournaments. No chasing losses.
Basically, anyone calling me a degen is trying to tell me I don't know what I'm doing. While I certainly don't know everything - to quote Jay-Z, "I know a 'lil bit".
I do think there are some areas of my life where I might be considered a true "degen". Probably my declining health at least. I've definitely taken risks there. I guess that makes Steve Jobs a degen too.
Sunday, October 23, 2011
BBV: Blogger Block & Variance
Some of you might have noticed I haven't posted in awhile. The last few days I can blame on my ISP. Try entering 100+ fantasy football rosters on your cell phone. It's a bit stressful.
Otherwise, I just didn't feel like blogging much. Fantasy hockey has started up and that gets me good action almost every day. Fantasy football occupies most of my weekend and the tournaments are getting bigger prize pools each week. It's important to keep my focus on that.
My biggest beef with hockey so far is that Fan Duel had frozen the price movement of the player pool for the first 2+ weeks of the season. They have really tried to nurse interest in their hockey product, it seems they wanted to make the bargains so obvious even the newbies would recognize them.
I don't like it, but I understand if they are trying to suck the skill out of the game somewhat. The good fantasy hockey players are REALLY good.
Now the prices have finally started to move. Hopefully these cap games will become a little more skill based.
It's been a pretty amazing fall so far. Week 4 of NFL was a personal best for me. Between my own play and the players I stake, we had a record breaking net profit day. (Of course, week 5 was my worst week of the season so far, but I only gave back about $800.)
Hockey started out very strong as well. I've had two winning streaks over $1k, each followed by downswings around $500. Already a roller coaster less than three weeks in. Buckle up.
If you haven't heard yet, Fan Duel is launching fantasy college basketball this season. They are only spreading games between the top 6 power conferences. But I expect this to be a much better product than the NBA game, mostly because the injury info will be much more reliable. (The scoring table will be the same.)
Looks like it's going to be a busy winter after all!
Otherwise, I just didn't feel like blogging much. Fantasy hockey has started up and that gets me good action almost every day. Fantasy football occupies most of my weekend and the tournaments are getting bigger prize pools each week. It's important to keep my focus on that.
My biggest beef with hockey so far is that Fan Duel had frozen the price movement of the player pool for the first 2+ weeks of the season. They have really tried to nurse interest in their hockey product, it seems they wanted to make the bargains so obvious even the newbies would recognize them.
I don't like it, but I understand if they are trying to suck the skill out of the game somewhat. The good fantasy hockey players are REALLY good.
Now the prices have finally started to move. Hopefully these cap games will become a little more skill based.
It's been a pretty amazing fall so far. Week 4 of NFL was a personal best for me. Between my own play and the players I stake, we had a record breaking net profit day. (Of course, week 5 was my worst week of the season so far, but I only gave back about $800.)
Hockey started out very strong as well. I've had two winning streaks over $1k, each followed by downswings around $500. Already a roller coaster less than three weeks in. Buckle up.
If you haven't heard yet, Fan Duel is launching fantasy college basketball this season. They are only spreading games between the top 6 power conferences. But I expect this to be a much better product than the NBA game, mostly because the injury info will be much more reliable. (The scoring table will be the same.)
Looks like it's going to be a busy winter after all!
Wednesday, October 05, 2011
Fan Duel Hockey 101
Here's a fluff piece I wrote on Fan Duel Insider for fantasy hockey newbies:
Fan Duel Hockey 101
As the baseball season winds down and the NBA lockout continues, hockey becomes the only sport that is currently running contests on a daily basis. Without any other options to get your daily Fan Duel fix, here’s a primer for you Duelers trying hockey for the first time.
Lesson #1: Everybody plays. NHL teams dress 20 players: 12 forwards, 6 defense and 2 goalies. With the exception of the backup goalie, everyone who suits up will get significant time on the ice. Star forwards will often average 20 minutes of ice time and some of the best d-men will log 25 minutes or more.
Pay attention to which players get more time, because they will have the most opportunity to put up points for your squad.
Lesson #2: Make sure your goalie is starting. Goaltenders are the most consistent scorers in Fan Duel hockey. Just like you would check on a starting pitcher in baseball, look around for confirmation that your pick will be in the net. Starting goalies usually play the entire game, only getting pulled if they perform very poorly.
It stings to get zero points from your goalie, just because you didn’t double check his status.
Lesson #3: Empty net goals can decide your contest. NHL games are very close affairs, many decided by one goal. One of the most exciting moments in the game is when the team that is behind pulls their goalie for an extra forward. This 6 on 5 scenario often results in a goal for one team, usually in the final seconds of the game.
This last second scoring is one of the things that makes Fan Duel hockey so exciting. You’re never out of it until the very end.
Lesson #4: Penalty minutes are good for you. Having a referee escort your player to the box might not seem like a good thing, but it helps your team. Fan Duel scoring awards 0.25 points for each penalty minute received.
There will be nights when teams like to drop the gloves and fight each other. On those occasions a player with major PIMs might earn you more than a scoring forward. There are many value priced players out there with a propensity to earn penalty minutes.
Lesson #5: Learn how plus/minus is scored. One of the great equalizers in Fan Duel hockey is the plus/minus scoring. It’s a simple concept: When a team scores a goal, each skater on the ice for the scoring team gets a +1. Conversely, the skaters that were scored upon get a -1. However, it is also important to note that no plus/minus scoring occurs during power play goal situations.
With the potential to both gain or lose points, plus/minus scoring can help you make a significant comeback in your contests.
Let’s drop the puck and enjoy Fan Duel hockey all winter long!
Buffalo66 is a long time Fan Duel member who runs several fantasy web sites of his own.
Fan Duel Hockey 101
As the baseball season winds down and the NBA lockout continues, hockey becomes the only sport that is currently running contests on a daily basis. Without any other options to get your daily Fan Duel fix, here’s a primer for you Duelers trying hockey for the first time.
Lesson #1: Everybody plays. NHL teams dress 20 players: 12 forwards, 6 defense and 2 goalies. With the exception of the backup goalie, everyone who suits up will get significant time on the ice. Star forwards will often average 20 minutes of ice time and some of the best d-men will log 25 minutes or more.
Pay attention to which players get more time, because they will have the most opportunity to put up points for your squad.
Lesson #2: Make sure your goalie is starting. Goaltenders are the most consistent scorers in Fan Duel hockey. Just like you would check on a starting pitcher in baseball, look around for confirmation that your pick will be in the net. Starting goalies usually play the entire game, only getting pulled if they perform very poorly.
It stings to get zero points from your goalie, just because you didn’t double check his status.
Lesson #3: Empty net goals can decide your contest. NHL games are very close affairs, many decided by one goal. One of the most exciting moments in the game is when the team that is behind pulls their goalie for an extra forward. This 6 on 5 scenario often results in a goal for one team, usually in the final seconds of the game.
This last second scoring is one of the things that makes Fan Duel hockey so exciting. You’re never out of it until the very end.
Lesson #4: Penalty minutes are good for you. Having a referee escort your player to the box might not seem like a good thing, but it helps your team. Fan Duel scoring awards 0.25 points for each penalty minute received.
There will be nights when teams like to drop the gloves and fight each other. On those occasions a player with major PIMs might earn you more than a scoring forward. There are many value priced players out there with a propensity to earn penalty minutes.
Lesson #5: Learn how plus/minus is scored. One of the great equalizers in Fan Duel hockey is the plus/minus scoring. It’s a simple concept: When a team scores a goal, each skater on the ice for the scoring team gets a +1. Conversely, the skaters that were scored upon get a -1. However, it is also important to note that no plus/minus scoring occurs during power play goal situations.
With the potential to both gain or lose points, plus/minus scoring can help you make a significant comeback in your contests.
Let’s drop the puck and enjoy Fan Duel hockey all winter long!
Buffalo66 is a long time Fan Duel member who runs several fantasy web sites of his own.
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Condia: Playing Without A Profit Motive?
This month the DFS community was all abuzz with the high volume play of Condia, who seems to be a football specialist.
By taking up so many games in the lobby, some of the bigger sites instituted a "Condia rule", which limits the amount of entries at buy ins below $50 or so.
Rotogrinders even has Condia at the top of their rankings. Curiously though, Condia did not score very well in week 2 or week 3, so I question whether he is even profitable at this point.
It also shows that the RG rankings are a complete sham. If a player places 4 top ten scores in a large field, only his top cash is counted. However, Condia could be losing big, but is still ranked #1 solely on his heads up volume. There is ZERO skill involved in that.
But the more interesting point is Condia's motive to play such a high volume. It appears that his bankroll actually surpasses what he might win in the future. In other words, there is a diminishing returns scenario facing Condia. Against the rake, it's unlikely he gets profitable once he has a bad week (which he's already experienced).
So why does he continue to play a large volume? It seems that he doesn't need the money. It seems he doesn't need to get even. It seems he doesn't want the attention, rarely chatting or corresponding with other players.
So I'm stumped at Condia's true motive for playing daily fantasy. He is an enigma wrapped in a riddle dipped in white chocolate.
As for me, I had a very small losing week in NFL, my first this season. I usually average 4 losing weeks each NFL season, so this is not uncommon. Hockey starts up next week and that will keep me very busy for the rest of the year.
By taking up so many games in the lobby, some of the bigger sites instituted a "Condia rule", which limits the amount of entries at buy ins below $50 or so.
Rotogrinders even has Condia at the top of their rankings. Curiously though, Condia did not score very well in week 2 or week 3, so I question whether he is even profitable at this point.
It also shows that the RG rankings are a complete sham. If a player places 4 top ten scores in a large field, only his top cash is counted. However, Condia could be losing big, but is still ranked #1 solely on his heads up volume. There is ZERO skill involved in that.
But the more interesting point is Condia's motive to play such a high volume. It appears that his bankroll actually surpasses what he might win in the future. In other words, there is a diminishing returns scenario facing Condia. Against the rake, it's unlikely he gets profitable once he has a bad week (which he's already experienced).
So why does he continue to play a large volume? It seems that he doesn't need the money. It seems he doesn't need to get even. It seems he doesn't want the attention, rarely chatting or corresponding with other players.
So I'm stumped at Condia's true motive for playing daily fantasy. He is an enigma wrapped in a riddle dipped in white chocolate.
As for me, I had a very small losing week in NFL, my first this season. I usually average 4 losing weeks each NFL season, so this is not uncommon. Hockey starts up next week and that will keep me very busy for the rest of the year.
Monday, September 19, 2011
Some Weeks Are Better Than Others
Sometimes I think life is a series of trade-offs. It's not a box of chocolates. You know what you're gonna get. You just don't know when (or how much).
Health wise, I've felt pretty crappy lately. I've really slowed down in the past year or so. While I can still get out and ride, I have to let some other things go. Perfect example: Passing up an invitation to a laser tag birthday party.
Fantasy wise, It was a shining week. I concentrated on NFL and it paid off handsomely. While I didn't win any tournaments, I placed 2nd in two, and if I'm lucky enough to hold those spots I'll post a beautiful +200% ROI for the week.
So would I trade my fantasy winnings for feeling better? I guess when I'm at my most painful I'd probably say yes.
But If I can keep making it to next week, there's always a possibility that week will be even better.
Health wise, I've felt pretty crappy lately. I've really slowed down in the past year or so. While I can still get out and ride, I have to let some other things go. Perfect example: Passing up an invitation to a laser tag birthday party.
Fantasy wise, It was a shining week. I concentrated on NFL and it paid off handsomely. While I didn't win any tournaments, I placed 2nd in two, and if I'm lucky enough to hold those spots I'll post a beautiful +200% ROI for the week.
So would I trade my fantasy winnings for feeling better? I guess when I'm at my most painful I'd probably say yes.
But If I can keep making it to next week, there's always a possibility that week will be even better.
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
My Evil Twin Is Badder Than Yours (Also Probably In Prison)
"Sometimes you might be walking around lucky and not even know it." -Jay Trotter, in the film Let It Ride
I actually WON this weekend by taking a bad beat. I didn't lose $120 on the $420 I planned on wagering in Canada.
That's because Canada doesn't want me anymore. I was refused entry and politely asked never to return.
I've always had a tricky time with my trips to the great white north. I had Blue Jays tickets for a couple years (post 9/11) and always seemed to get detained for some reason. I just summed it up to the fact I was usually traveling solo, and thus more likely fitting some profile.
What I didn't realize until this past weekend is I fit the perfect profile of a really bad dude.
I have the bad luck of having a very common name. I have the REALLY bad luck of having the same name and birth date of a person that has committed multiple felonies.
I want to be very clear here - that person is not me.
So sitting in immigration on Saturday, waiting for this mistaken identity to sort itself out, I get asked, "Have you ever been arrested?"
(Sigh.) "Yes, I have. I was arrested about 15 years ago on a traffic stop. Although I have never been convicted of a crime."
Another 20 minutes pass. I get summoned to the counter:
"The good news John is you're not the John we originally thought you were. The bad news is your FBI file shows you convicted of a crime. Therefore you are barred from entering Canada for life, pending a criminal rehabilitation."
I was told if I ever tried to enter Canada again I would be arrested. Then I was escorted back the the US entry point.
The rest of my day I walked around dumbfounded. There is an FBI file on me. It says I was convicted of a crime, when I was not. And the the Canadian government also considers me a criminal.
Now I readily admit to being arrested when I was younger. Thanks to circumstances and a great lawyer I got off with a moving violation. But I can honestly say under penalty of perjury that I have never been convicted of a crime.
The funny part is all of this happened because I went there to bet on football LEGALLY. If I use an online book or a local bookie, I'm breaking the law.
I guess if I turn my back toward Canada, that means I'm facing in the direction of Las Vegas.
I actually WON this weekend by taking a bad beat. I didn't lose $120 on the $420 I planned on wagering in Canada.
That's because Canada doesn't want me anymore. I was refused entry and politely asked never to return.
I've always had a tricky time with my trips to the great white north. I had Blue Jays tickets for a couple years (post 9/11) and always seemed to get detained for some reason. I just summed it up to the fact I was usually traveling solo, and thus more likely fitting some profile.
What I didn't realize until this past weekend is I fit the perfect profile of a really bad dude.
I have the bad luck of having a very common name. I have the REALLY bad luck of having the same name and birth date of a person that has committed multiple felonies.
I want to be very clear here - that person is not me.
So sitting in immigration on Saturday, waiting for this mistaken identity to sort itself out, I get asked, "Have you ever been arrested?"
(Sigh.) "Yes, I have. I was arrested about 15 years ago on a traffic stop. Although I have never been convicted of a crime."
Another 20 minutes pass. I get summoned to the counter:
"The good news John is you're not the John we originally thought you were. The bad news is your FBI file shows you convicted of a crime. Therefore you are barred from entering Canada for life, pending a criminal rehabilitation."
I was told if I ever tried to enter Canada again I would be arrested. Then I was escorted back the the US entry point.
The rest of my day I walked around dumbfounded. There is an FBI file on me. It says I was convicted of a crime, when I was not. And the the Canadian government also considers me a criminal.
Now I readily admit to being arrested when I was younger. Thanks to circumstances and a great lawyer I got off with a moving violation. But I can honestly say under penalty of perjury that I have never been convicted of a crime.
The funny part is all of this happened because I went there to bet on football LEGALLY. If I use an online book or a local bookie, I'm breaking the law.
I guess if I turn my back toward Canada, that means I'm facing in the direction of Las Vegas.
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Football Picks (Now Mythical)
Due to my now nebulous immigration status, I wasn't able to get my picks in today. but since I put all of the time in on these, I'll share the wealth. Let's see if I win any imaginary Canadian Sklansky bucks.
NCAA:
Stanford -21.5 / Nevada +27.5 $30 to pay $90
Alabama o42 / Virginia u52.5 $30 to pay $99.90
FAU o49 / Virginia u52.5 $30 to pay $94.50
FAU o49 /Tennessee o56 $30 to pay $94.50
Alabama o42/ Auburn o57.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Ohio St. o52.5 / Tennessee o56 $30 to pay $99.90
Nebraska o51 / Auburn o57.5 $30 to pay $97.13
Ohio St. o52.5 / TCU o49.5 $30 to pay $97.13
TCU o49.5 / Nebraska o51 $30 to pay $91.88
NFL:
Colts +9 / Chargers -8.5 $30 to pay $90
Falcons o40.5 / Patriots u45.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Falcons o40.5 / Giants o38 $30 to pay $102.68
Giants o38 / Raiders u40.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Patriots u45.5 / Raiders u40.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Total wagered $420
NCAA:
Stanford -21.5 / Nevada +27.5 $30 to pay $90
Alabama o42 / Virginia u52.5 $30 to pay $99.90
FAU o49 / Virginia u52.5 $30 to pay $94.50
FAU o49 /Tennessee o56 $30 to pay $94.50
Alabama o42/ Auburn o57.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Ohio St. o52.5 / Tennessee o56 $30 to pay $99.90
Nebraska o51 / Auburn o57.5 $30 to pay $97.13
Ohio St. o52.5 / TCU o49.5 $30 to pay $97.13
TCU o49.5 / Nebraska o51 $30 to pay $91.88
NFL:
Colts +9 / Chargers -8.5 $30 to pay $90
Falcons o40.5 / Patriots u45.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Falcons o40.5 / Giants o38 $30 to pay $102.68
Giants o38 / Raiders u40.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Patriots u45.5 / Raiders u40.5 $30 to pay $102.68
Total wagered $420
Tuesday, September 06, 2011
I'm Doing What I Was Born To Do
I have to admit, I've had a significant identity crisis since my father passed away and I returned to Buffalo.
What the hell am I? When people ask me, "What do you do?", I always have a pause before my answer.
I work for myself. I'm an entrepreneur. I run a web site. I do Internet marketing. But never have I publicly said, "I'm a professional gambler."
Now I'm just beginning to realize that's exactly what I've become.
Since I was a small child I've been drawn to games - especially games involving uncertainty. Roll the dice in Risk. Toss dimes or rings at the state fair. Flip for your favorite baseball card.
I've also been drawn to both sports and math. I spent much more time looking at the backs of those cards, memorizing player stats. I spent hours alone playing stat driven sports games, APBA, Stratomatic and many more, including my all time favorites: SI superstar baseball and Mattel talking football. I'm quite sure I'd still be playing those today if I owned them.
As a teenager I developed a poker habit, playing a roving home game with many of my high school friends. When we first got cable TV I was only 15, but all of a sudden live sports was unleashed in my household every night. I also started computing, playing almost any sports game on the Commodore 64. I even found time to play a few fantasy leagues.
All of this was living for me, but it was also training. I learned strategy, decision making, risk and reward.
Fast forward 15 years. After a business degree, a counseling degree and several boring corporate jobs, I discovered online poker (and sports betting). While a nebulous legality surrounded the entire world of Internet commerce, I knew this was the future of gaming.
Out of the ashes of online poker, the phoenix of daily fantasy sports was born. I caught this wave right at the beginning and experienced consistent success. Only my poor bankroll and my family issues kept me from taking on anyone bigger than myself.
So now we are knocking on 2012 and I'm taking a personal assessment. I can say with full honesty:
-I am a lifetime winner at online poker against the rake, without rakeback or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime winner at sports betting, without rebates or rewards.
-I am a lifetime winner at daily fantasy sports (all sports), without rakeback or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime winner at horse betting, without rebates or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime LOSER at slots, down $220, two sessions over a ten year period. I'll never play slots again.
-I am a successful marketer for legal Internet gaming sites.
-I successfully stake fantasy players, all of my horses have turned profit every year so far.
-I've created a successful projection model that continues to evolve, it has helped make money in multiple gaming areas.
Yet given all of these factors, I'm still NOT the house. I'm the action maker, not the action taker.
I guess this means I'm a gambler. Although I don't think what I do is any different than any individual investor.
I'm just doing what I've always tried to do: Get my money in with the best of it.
What the hell am I? When people ask me, "What do you do?", I always have a pause before my answer.
I work for myself. I'm an entrepreneur. I run a web site. I do Internet marketing. But never have I publicly said, "I'm a professional gambler."
Now I'm just beginning to realize that's exactly what I've become.
Since I was a small child I've been drawn to games - especially games involving uncertainty. Roll the dice in Risk. Toss dimes or rings at the state fair. Flip for your favorite baseball card.
I've also been drawn to both sports and math. I spent much more time looking at the backs of those cards, memorizing player stats. I spent hours alone playing stat driven sports games, APBA, Stratomatic and many more, including my all time favorites: SI superstar baseball and Mattel talking football. I'm quite sure I'd still be playing those today if I owned them.
As a teenager I developed a poker habit, playing a roving home game with many of my high school friends. When we first got cable TV I was only 15, but all of a sudden live sports was unleashed in my household every night. I also started computing, playing almost any sports game on the Commodore 64. I even found time to play a few fantasy leagues.
All of this was living for me, but it was also training. I learned strategy, decision making, risk and reward.
Fast forward 15 years. After a business degree, a counseling degree and several boring corporate jobs, I discovered online poker (and sports betting). While a nebulous legality surrounded the entire world of Internet commerce, I knew this was the future of gaming.
Out of the ashes of online poker, the phoenix of daily fantasy sports was born. I caught this wave right at the beginning and experienced consistent success. Only my poor bankroll and my family issues kept me from taking on anyone bigger than myself.
So now we are knocking on 2012 and I'm taking a personal assessment. I can say with full honesty:
-I am a lifetime winner at online poker against the rake, without rakeback or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime winner at sports betting, without rebates or rewards.
-I am a lifetime winner at daily fantasy sports (all sports), without rakeback or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime winner at horse betting, without rebates or bonuses.
-I am a lifetime LOSER at slots, down $220, two sessions over a ten year period. I'll never play slots again.
-I am a successful marketer for legal Internet gaming sites.
-I successfully stake fantasy players, all of my horses have turned profit every year so far.
-I've created a successful projection model that continues to evolve, it has helped make money in multiple gaming areas.
Yet given all of these factors, I'm still NOT the house. I'm the action maker, not the action taker.
I guess this means I'm a gambler. Although I don't think what I do is any different than any individual investor.
I'm just doing what I've always tried to do: Get my money in with the best of it.
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Why the Fan Duel FFFC Isn't Worth It
Those of you that follow my fantasy exploits know I play a lot of daily (weekly) fantasy football. And if you followed me last season, you'll remember that I chose not to participate in the FanDuel Fantasy Football Championship. There were two main reasons for this:
1) I had already booked a trip to Las Vegas, the week immediately after the finals.
2) Only the top 3 finalists won anything significant. All other finalists won only $500 for beating a field of 600+.
You also might remember that I fielded scores high enough to win a finalist seat on 3 different weekends. I'm not upset about that at all. The contest had a shitty prize structure. I chose not to participate.
Fan Duel has relaunched the FFFC with much bigger prizes. They also have much bigger traffic. And I will admit their prize structure is not as bad as last year.
However, I will not try for a finals seat in the FFFC once again. Here are my reasons:
1) Once again the finals will be in Las Vegas, where the finalist must pay taxes on his/her trip.
2) You must do marketing for Fan Duel. It is an obligation that must be fulfilled to accept any prize money. And there is no specific end to your obligation - It could run on for a year or so.
3) The rake on the FFFC qualifiers will be obscene. I know they have to recoup money to pay out the finalists, but your money will be better spent elsewhere.
4) There are so many football large field tournaments on Fan Duel, it could be argued that you can actually win more that the 2011 FFFC champion (over the course of the whole season) just by concentrating on the other events.
Now I realize there will be plenty on dead money in the FFFC weekly qualifiers, but there will be the sharks too. I'd rather take them on the the capped large field events, where I know what the maximum rake will be on each entry.
1) I had already booked a trip to Las Vegas, the week immediately after the finals.
2) Only the top 3 finalists won anything significant. All other finalists won only $500 for beating a field of 600+.
You also might remember that I fielded scores high enough to win a finalist seat on 3 different weekends. I'm not upset about that at all. The contest had a shitty prize structure. I chose not to participate.
Fan Duel has relaunched the FFFC with much bigger prizes. They also have much bigger traffic. And I will admit their prize structure is not as bad as last year.
However, I will not try for a finals seat in the FFFC once again. Here are my reasons:
1) Once again the finals will be in Las Vegas, where the finalist must pay taxes on his/her trip.
2) You must do marketing for Fan Duel. It is an obligation that must be fulfilled to accept any prize money. And there is no specific end to your obligation - It could run on for a year or so.
3) The rake on the FFFC qualifiers will be obscene. I know they have to recoup money to pay out the finalists, but your money will be better spent elsewhere.
4) There are so many football large field tournaments on Fan Duel, it could be argued that you can actually win more that the 2011 FFFC champion (over the course of the whole season) just by concentrating on the other events.
Now I realize there will be plenty on dead money in the FFFC weekly qualifiers, but there will be the sharks too. I'd rather take them on the the capped large field events, where I know what the maximum rake will be on each entry.
Monday, August 22, 2011
The Counter Intuitive Nature Of Handicapping Superfectas
There are many great thoroughbred handicappers out there. Heck, I don't even claim to be a good handicapper.
There is also obvious value in picking winners. By this I mean the horse that finishes 1st in a race. With many carryovers on horizontal bets, there is added value in capping the pick 4-5-6 type wagers.
However, I'm in my own little 10 cent superfecta world. Playing this vertical wager has made me money, but it takes a completely different view to be successful.
I find the average field in races I bet is 8 selections. If I'm looking to cash a superfecta, I'm not looking to pick a winner, but instead picking the top half of the field.
I'll admit my methods are rudimentary. I rank the horses on several metrics, and the top four become my choices. Sometimes it's easier to eliminate the "also rans" than it is to make that 4th selection.
I also like to pick my horses without influence of the morning line or the betting pool. If public money goes against my choices, that's OK - it will pay that much sweeter if it comes in.
Now just because you picked the best 4 horses in the field, that doesn't mean they will finish 1-4. You hope the cream rises to the top and none of your horses quit down the stretch.
Superfectas are high variance and you can go quite awhile between cashes. If you are hitting 3 of the 4 regularly, then you're probably doing something right. Just be patient and the big winners will happen.
Aside from a carryover situation, I don't think there's a better value at the track than the superfecta. You could play a ten race card for $24, which a legitimate shot to make a few hundred dollars. Just about anybody can afford that action.
There is also obvious value in picking winners. By this I mean the horse that finishes 1st in a race. With many carryovers on horizontal bets, there is added value in capping the pick 4-5-6 type wagers.
However, I'm in my own little 10 cent superfecta world. Playing this vertical wager has made me money, but it takes a completely different view to be successful.
I find the average field in races I bet is 8 selections. If I'm looking to cash a superfecta, I'm not looking to pick a winner, but instead picking the top half of the field.
I'll admit my methods are rudimentary. I rank the horses on several metrics, and the top four become my choices. Sometimes it's easier to eliminate the "also rans" than it is to make that 4th selection.
I also like to pick my horses without influence of the morning line or the betting pool. If public money goes against my choices, that's OK - it will pay that much sweeter if it comes in.
Now just because you picked the best 4 horses in the field, that doesn't mean they will finish 1-4. You hope the cream rises to the top and none of your horses quit down the stretch.
Superfectas are high variance and you can go quite awhile between cashes. If you are hitting 3 of the 4 regularly, then you're probably doing something right. Just be patient and the big winners will happen.
Aside from a carryover situation, I don't think there's a better value at the track than the superfecta. You could play a ten race card for $24, which a legitimate shot to make a few hundred dollars. Just about anybody can afford that action.
Friday, August 19, 2011
Let Me Calculate That Rake For You
It amazes me that most fantasy players have absolutely no idea how much rake they are paying in daily contests. So as a favor to all of my readership, I've decided to break down the rake for you on the major sites:
Fan Duel:
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$10 to win $18 = $9 + $1 rake = 11.11% rake
$25 to win $45 = $22.50 + $2.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$50 to win $90 = $45 + $5 rake = 11.11% rake
$109 to win $200 = $100 + $9 rake = 9.00% rake
$270 to win $500 = $250 + $20 rake = 8.00% rake
Draftstreet:
$2 to win $3.40* = $1.70 + $.30 rake = 17.65% rake
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$11 to win $20 = $10 + $1 rake = 10.00% rake
$22 to win $40 = $20 + $2 rake = 10.00% rake
$55 to win $100 = $50 + $5 rake = 10.00% rake
$109 to win $200 = $100 + $9 rake = 9.00% rake
$215 to win $400 = $200 + $15 rake = 7.50% rake
Daily Joust:
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$11 to win $20 = $10 + $1 rake = 10.00% rake
$22 to win $40 = $20 + $2 rake = 10.00% rake
$55 to win $100 = $50 + $5 rake = 10.00% rake
$110 to win $200 = $100 + $10 rake = 10.00% rake
Fantasy Sports Live:
$2.70 to win $5 = $2.50 + $.20 rake = 8.00% rake
$5.40 to win $10 = $5 + $.40 rake = 8.00% rake
$10.80 to win $20 = $10 + $.80 rake = 8.00% rake
$21.60 to win $40 = $20 + $1.60 rake = 8.00% rake
$32.40 to win $60 = $30 + $2.40 rake = 8.00% rake
$54 to win $100 = $50 + $4 rake = 8.00% rake
$107 to win $200 = $100 + $7 rake = 7.00% rake
$213 to win $400 = $200 + $13 rake = 6.50% rake
$265 to win $500 = $250 + $15 rake = 6.00% rake
You can see that Fantasy Sports Live has the lowest rake by a wide margin.
So now you know how much rake you're paying. Does this change where you play or how much you play?
(*Draftstreet doesn't offer $2 HU games, but that is the percentage of rake on their $2 multi-player contests.)
Fan Duel:
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$10 to win $18 = $9 + $1 rake = 11.11% rake
$25 to win $45 = $22.50 + $2.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$50 to win $90 = $45 + $5 rake = 11.11% rake
$109 to win $200 = $100 + $9 rake = 9.00% rake
$270 to win $500 = $250 + $20 rake = 8.00% rake
Draftstreet:
$2 to win $3.40* = $1.70 + $.30 rake = 17.65% rake
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$11 to win $20 = $10 + $1 rake = 10.00% rake
$22 to win $40 = $20 + $2 rake = 10.00% rake
$55 to win $100 = $50 + $5 rake = 10.00% rake
$109 to win $200 = $100 + $9 rake = 9.00% rake
$215 to win $400 = $200 + $15 rake = 7.50% rake
Daily Joust:
$5 to win $9 = $4.50 + $.50 rake = 11.11% rake
$11 to win $20 = $10 + $1 rake = 10.00% rake
$22 to win $40 = $20 + $2 rake = 10.00% rake
$55 to win $100 = $50 + $5 rake = 10.00% rake
$110 to win $200 = $100 + $10 rake = 10.00% rake
Fantasy Sports Live:
$2.70 to win $5 = $2.50 + $.20 rake = 8.00% rake
$5.40 to win $10 = $5 + $.40 rake = 8.00% rake
$10.80 to win $20 = $10 + $.80 rake = 8.00% rake
$21.60 to win $40 = $20 + $1.60 rake = 8.00% rake
$32.40 to win $60 = $30 + $2.40 rake = 8.00% rake
$54 to win $100 = $50 + $4 rake = 8.00% rake
$107 to win $200 = $100 + $7 rake = 7.00% rake
$213 to win $400 = $200 + $13 rake = 6.50% rake
$265 to win $500 = $250 + $15 rake = 6.00% rake
You can see that Fantasy Sports Live has the lowest rake by a wide margin.
So now you know how much rake you're paying. Does this change where you play or how much you play?
(*Draftstreet doesn't offer $2 HU games, but that is the percentage of rake on their $2 multi-player contests.)
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Should Daily Fantasy Baseball Bother With A Salary Cap?
The salary caps for fantasy baseball seem way too soft. I'm not sure they should even bother with a cap anymore.
A friend asked me to look over his Fan Duel lineup a few nights ago. It looked something like this:
P - Stud pitcher
C - #3 hitter
1B- Cleanup hitter
2B - Cleanup hitter
SS - Cleanup hitter
3B - Cleanup hitter
LF - #3 hitter
CF - Cleanup hitter
RF - #3 hitter
Seriously? The "cap" allows you to select a stud at every position? Either the pricing is very inefficient or completely off.
DraftStreet is not much better. Even though you are required to pick 14 players for $100k, you can afford both stud pitching and an all-star lineup without having to sacrifice much of anything. Maybe one RP or one utility player.
These games should have tight pricing, making these all-star lineups obsolete. Or go in the other direction and remove the cap altogether.
Tighter caps would also eliminate the "stacked team" strategy. (I'm thrilled that strategy doesn't work in the other sports.)
This is a great example why I only play expert cap games on Fan Duel. It allows me to use my skill advantage to earn some money.
A friend asked me to look over his Fan Duel lineup a few nights ago. It looked something like this:
P - Stud pitcher
C - #3 hitter
1B- Cleanup hitter
2B - Cleanup hitter
SS - Cleanup hitter
3B - Cleanup hitter
LF - #3 hitter
CF - Cleanup hitter
RF - #3 hitter
Seriously? The "cap" allows you to select a stud at every position? Either the pricing is very inefficient or completely off.
DraftStreet is not much better. Even though you are required to pick 14 players for $100k, you can afford both stud pitching and an all-star lineup without having to sacrifice much of anything. Maybe one RP or one utility player.
These games should have tight pricing, making these all-star lineups obsolete. Or go in the other direction and remove the cap altogether.
Tighter caps would also eliminate the "stacked team" strategy. (I'm thrilled that strategy doesn't work in the other sports.)
This is a great example why I only play expert cap games on Fan Duel. It allows me to use my skill advantage to earn some money.
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Player Transfers Are Not Needed In Daily Fantasy Sports
DraftStreet announced today that they are doing away with the player to player transfer feature.
I think this is a good trend for the industry. There are two main reasons for this:
1) It will protect users from getting their funds stolen via hackers; and
2) It will discourage prop betting between users, which is a violation of the terms of use.
As someone who has been a hacking target repeatedly, I approve of this measure. Anyone getting access to my account cannot change any account information without me knowing about it. With transfers, the money would be long gone before I could try to cancel it out.
With paypal accepted at almost every site, there is no reason players cannot use that vehicle to transfer money amongst themselves.
I think this is a good trend for the industry. There are two main reasons for this:
1) It will protect users from getting their funds stolen via hackers; and
2) It will discourage prop betting between users, which is a violation of the terms of use.
As someone who has been a hacking target repeatedly, I approve of this measure. Anyone getting access to my account cannot change any account information without me knowing about it. With transfers, the money would be long gone before I could try to cancel it out.
With paypal accepted at almost every site, there is no reason players cannot use that vehicle to transfer money amongst themselves.
Saturday, August 06, 2011
A Little Bit Of Run Good At The Track
I decided to play some superfectas on a lazy Saturday afternoon. I whiffed completely at Saratoga, but I did manage to bink one at Louisiana Downs:
Not a bad return for about $32 in wagers.
UPDATE: managed to have another big day Monday:
Not as juicy as Saturday, but I'll take it any day of the week.
Tuesday, August 02, 2011
COO Of Draftstreet Accuses Me Of Multi-Accounting
Helluva nice birthday present. Got this email today:
Hey John,
I wanted to discuss an issue we have with your DraftStreet Account. You currently have 2 accounts at the same IP address, one of which clearly recruited the other, and only one which plays in leagues. We have made the determination that these accounts belong to the same person, and this violates both our One Account Per User policy as well as our Self Recruiting policy. I will be closing your account under Maggie Sullivan, and would ask that you not create any other aliases in the future. I appreciate your cooperation and understanding in this matter, and wish you the best of luck in DraftStreet leagues moving forward.
Don't hesitate to contact me should you feel we have made in error in our determination.
Sincerely,
--
Michael R Kibort
Chief Operating Officer
Left Tackle LLC
Now, I did ask my sister to sign up for Draftstreet with the sole purpose of recruiting me. To my knowledge AT THE TIME we both signed up this was not a violation of any terms. Who knows, maybe the terms have changed. We also have not shared an IP address. In fact, we live hundreds of miles apart.
Here's my retort to DS:
Hi Michael,
I have no problem with you closing my sister's account, but these accounts have never showed up on the same IP address. We live hundreds of miles apart from each other. It is a false accusation you are making.
I asked her to sign up so she could recruit me, as I am a high volume fantasy player. I have similar deals with most of the contest sites, as I actively play and recruit other players, and I am even staking new players.
Without any commission I lose incentive to play on DS or any contest site for that matter.
I have NEVER violated the one account per user policy, but if I have violated some other terms than I certainly understand the actions you are taking.
Best of luck to you in your endeavors,
Buffalo66
So what do you think? Am I wrong here? Losing out on the commissions is not a big deal to me, the bigger deal is being accused of multi-accounting when I certainly did not.
I guess I'll stick to playing elsewhere.
Hey John,
I wanted to discuss an issue we have with your DraftStreet Account. You currently have 2 accounts at the same IP address, one of which clearly recruited the other, and only one which plays in leagues. We have made the determination that these accounts belong to the same person, and this violates both our One Account Per User policy as well as our Self Recruiting policy. I will be closing your account under Maggie Sullivan, and would ask that you not create any other aliases in the future. I appreciate your cooperation and understanding in this matter, and wish you the best of luck in DraftStreet leagues moving forward.
Don't hesitate to contact me should you feel we have made in error in our determination.
Sincerely,
--
Michael R Kibort
Chief Operating Officer
Left Tackle LLC
Now, I did ask my sister to sign up for Draftstreet with the sole purpose of recruiting me. To my knowledge AT THE TIME we both signed up this was not a violation of any terms. Who knows, maybe the terms have changed. We also have not shared an IP address. In fact, we live hundreds of miles apart.
Here's my retort to DS:
Hi Michael,
I have no problem with you closing my sister's account, but these accounts have never showed up on the same IP address. We live hundreds of miles apart from each other. It is a false accusation you are making.
I asked her to sign up so she could recruit me, as I am a high volume fantasy player. I have similar deals with most of the contest sites, as I actively play and recruit other players, and I am even staking new players.
Without any commission I lose incentive to play on DS or any contest site for that matter.
I have NEVER violated the one account per user policy, but if I have violated some other terms than I certainly understand the actions you are taking.
Best of luck to you in your endeavors,
Buffalo66
So what do you think? Am I wrong here? Losing out on the commissions is not a big deal to me, the bigger deal is being accused of multi-accounting when I certainly did not.
I guess I'll stick to playing elsewhere.
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